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Determinantes inmediatos y fundamentales del Crecimiento económico en Colombia bajo el Método Bayesiano de selección de variables

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  • Juan Ricardo Perilla Jiménez

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Abstract

Este documento presenta un análisis del crecimiento en Colombia a partir de un modelo deselección de variables basado en el método bayesiano y modelos de series de tiempo de rezagosdistribuidos (ARDL). El aporte del ejercicio consiste principalmente en el análisis de diversosfactores que la teoría económica identifica como determinantes del desempeño económicousando una metodología standard y evitando el uso de series demasiado largas para evitar elsesgo originado en cambios metodológicos. Los resultados obtenidos resaltan la importancia del stock de capital físico y humano (tasas de educación primaria y secundaria) en la explicación del crecimiento de largo plazo. Adicionalmente, en los modelos con mayor capacidad de predicción resultan seleccionados determinantes como la deuda externa del sector privado, la deuda publica total, los precios industriales y el progreso técnico, con una menor probabilidad aparecen seleccionados la oferta monetaria y la inflación, cuyos resultados son coherentes con los planteamientos teóricos y confirman los hallazgos de otros trabajos para la economíacolombiana. La identificación de los componentes del modelo de corrección del error, señala laimportancia del crecimiento rezagado y la tasa de crecimiento de los mismos determinantesseleccionados en el largo plazo.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Ricardo Perilla Jiménez, 2008. "Determinantes inmediatos y fundamentales del Crecimiento económico en Colombia bajo el Método Bayesiano de selección de variables," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA 005118, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000118:005118
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. François Bourguignon & Amedeo Spadaro, 2006. "Microsimulation as a tool for evaluating redistribution policies," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, pages 77-106.
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    4. Diego Corredor & Oliver Enrique Pardo, 2008. "Matrices de Contabilidad Social 2003, 2004 y 2005," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA 004582, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.
    5. McDonald, Scott, 2005. "The PROVIDE Project Standard Computable General Equilibrium Model: Version 2," Technical Paper Series 15625, PROVIDE Project.
    6. Willenbockel, Dirk, 2004. "Specification choice and robustness in CGE trade policy analysis with imperfect competition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 1065-1099, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crecimiento económico; Series de Tiempo; econometría bayesiana.;

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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