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End-Of-Conflict Deforestation: Evidence From Colombian’s Peace Agreement

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  • Prem, M
  • Saavedra, S
  • Vargas, J.F

Abstract

Armed conflict can endanger natural resources through several channels such as direct predation from fighting groups, but it may also help preserve ecosystems by dissuading extractive economic activities through the fear of extortion. The effect of conflict on deforestation is thus an empirical question. This paper studies the effect on forest cover of Colombia’s recent peace negotiation between the central government and the FARC insurgency. Using yearly deforestation data from satellite images and a difference-in-differences identification strategy, we show that areas controlled by FARC prior to the declaration of a permanent ceasefire that ultimately led to a peace agreement experienced a differential increase in deforestation after the start of the ceasefire. The deforestation effect of peace is attenuated in municipalities with higher state capacity, and is exacerbated by land intensive economic activities. Our results highlight the importance of complementing peacemaking milestones with state building efforts to avoid environmental damage.

Suggested Citation

  • Prem, M & Saavedra, S & Vargas, J.F, 2018. "End-Of-Conflict Deforestation: Evidence From Colombian’s Peace Agreement," Documentos de Trabajo 017068, Universidad del Rosario.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000092:017068
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mounu Prem & Andrés F. Rivera & Dario A. Romero & Juan F. Vargas, 2018. "Killing Social Leaders for Territorial Control: The Unintended Consequences of Peace," Documentos de Trabajo 016385, Universidad del Rosario.
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    9. Jorge Restrepo & Michael Spagat & Juan Vargas, 2004. "The Dynamics of the Columbian Civil Conflict: A New Dataset," Homo Oeconomicus, Institute of SocioEconomics, vol. 21, pages 396-429.
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    11. Mauricio Romero & Santiago Saavedra, 2021. "Communal Property Rights and Deforestation," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(6), pages 1038-1052, June.
    12. Adriana Camacho & Catherine Rodriguez, 2013. "Firm Exit and Armed Conflict in Colombia," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 57(1), pages 89-116, February.
    13. Caviglia-Harris, Jill & Sills, Erin & Bell, Andrew & Harris, Daniel & Mullan, Katrina & Roberts, Dar, 2016. "Busting the Boom–Bust Pattern of Development in the Brazilian Amazon," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 82-96.
    14. Pfaff, Alexander & Robalino, Juan & Lima, Eirivelthon & Sandoval, Catalina & Herrera, Luis Diego, 2014. "Governance, Location and Avoided Deforestation from Protected Areas: Greater Restrictions Can Have Lower Impact, Due to Differences in Location," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 7-20.
    15. Bennett, Aoife & Ravikumar, Ashwin & Paltán, Homero, 2018. "The Political Ecology of Oil Palm Company-Community partnerships in the Peruvian Amazon: Deforestation consequences of the privatization of rural development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 29-41.
    16. Leblois, Antoine & Damette, Olivier & Wolfersberger, Julien, 2017. "What has Driven Deforestation in Developing Countries Since the 2000s? Evidence from New Remote-Sensing Data," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 82-102.
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    Cited by:

    1. Namen, O & Prem, M & Vargas, J.F, 2019. "The human capital peace dividend," Documentos de Trabajo 017346, Universidad del Rosario.
    2. De Los Rios, Camilo, 2022. "The double fence: Overlapping institutions and deforestation in the Colombian Amazon," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    3. Mejía, Daniel & Vargas, Juan F. & Prem, Mounu, 2019. "The rise and persistence of illegal crops: evidence from a naive policy announcement," Working papers 17, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    4. Prem, Mounu & Purroy, Miguel E & Vargas, Juan F., 2021. "Landmines: The Local Effects of Demining," Working papers 86, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    5. MariÌ a Elvira Guerra-CuÌ jar & Mounu Prem & Paul Rodríguez-Lesmes & Juan F. Vargas, 2020. "The Peace Baby Boom: Evidence from Colombia’s peace agreement with the FARC," Documentos de Trabajo LACEA 018485, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA.
    6. Vanegas-Cubillos, M. & Sylvester, J. & Villarino, E. & Pérez-Marulanda, L. & Ganzenmüller, R. & Löhr, K. & Bonatti, M. & Castro-Nunez, A., 2022. "Forest cover changes and public policy: A literature review for post-conflict Colombia," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    7. Carolina Bernal & Mónica Ortiz & Mounu Prem & Juan F. Vargas, 2022. "Peaceful entry: Entrepreneurship dynamics during Colombia’s peace agreement," Documentos de Trabajo LACEA 019939, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA.
    8. Andres M. Urcuqui-Bustamante & Theresa L. Selfa & Paul Hirsch & Catherine M. Ashcraft, 2021. "Uncovering Stakeholder Participation in Payment for Hydrological Services (PHS) Program Decision Making in Mexico and Colombia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-26, July.
    9. Robin Harding & Mounu Prem & Nelson A. Ruiz & David Vargas, 2021. "Buying a Blind Eye: Campaign Donations, Forbearance, and Deforestation in Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo 019296, Universidad del Rosario.
    10. Nicolás de Roux & Luis Roberto Martínez, 2021. "Forgone Investment: Civil Conflict and Agricultural Credit in Colombia," Documentos CEDE 019236, Universidad de los Andes - CEDE.
    11. Lucas Marín Llanes, 2020. "Unintended Consequences of Alternative Development Programs: Evidence From Colombia's Illegal Crop Substitution," Documentos CEDE 018468, Universidad de los Andes - CEDE.
    12. Rodríguez-de-Francisco, Jean Carlo & del Cairo, Carlos & Ortiz-Gallego, Daniel & Velez-Triana, Juan Sebastian & Vergara-Gutiérrez, Tomás & Hein, Jonas, 2021. "Post-conflict transition and REDD+ in Colombia: Challenges to reducing deforestation in the Amazon," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    13. Perilla, Sergio & Prem, Mounu & Purroy, Miguel E. & Vargas, Juan F., 2021. "How Peace Saves Lives? Evidence from Colombia," SocArXiv cxuwg, Center for Open Science.
    14. Nicolás de Roux & Luis Martínez, 2021. "Inversión Perdida: Conflicto Civil y Crédito Agrícola en Colombia," Documentos CEDE 019622, Universidad de los Andes - CEDE.
    15. Ana Maria Diaz & Luz Magdalena Salas & Ana María Tribín-Uribe, 2020. "Hidden benefits of peace: The case of sexual violence," Borradores de Economia 1124, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    16. Camilo De Los Rios Rueda, 2020. "The Double Fence: Overlapping Institutions and Deforestation in the Colombian Amazon," Documentos CEDE 018007, Universidad de los Andes - CEDE.
    17. Therese Anders, 2020. "Territorial control in civil wars: Theory and measurement using machine learning," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(6), pages 701-714, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deforestation; Conflict; Peace building; Colombia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts

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