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Demand of children in Colombia: guessing or planning


  • Gamboa, Luis Fernando


  • Forero Ramírez, Nohora


In this paper, we attempt to analyze the determinants of unintended births among Colombian women aged 40 years old or more using data from the `Encuesta Nacional de Demografía y Salud ENDS- 2005, which is Colombia´s national demographic and health survey. Given the especial characteristics of the variable under analysis, we used count data models in order to test whether certain characteristics of women and their socioeconomic backgrounds such as their level and years of schooling or socioeconomic group, explain the number of unintended births. We found that women´s education and the area of residence are significant determinants of unintended births. The inverse relationship between the level of education of women and the number of unintended births has key implications to social policies. El artículo analiza los determinantes de la presencia de hijos no deseados en Colombia. Se utiliza la información de la Encuesta Nacional de Demografía y Salud (ENDS, 2005), específicamente para las mujeres de 40 años o más. Dadas las características especiales de la variable que se analiza, se utilizan modelos de conteo para verificar si determinadas características socioeconómicas como la educación o el estrato económico explican la presencia de hijos no deseados. Se encuentra que la educación de la mujer y el área de residencia son determinantes significativos de los nacimientos no planeados. Además, la relación negativa entre el número de hijos no deseados y la educación de la mujer arroja implicaciones clave en materia de política social. "

Suggested Citation

  • Gamboa, Luis Fernando & Forero Ramírez, Nohora, 2009. "Demand of children in Colombia: guessing or planning," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 005936, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000092:005936

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    family size; unintended births; schooling; count data models; tamaño de la familia; nacimientos no deseados; educación; modelos de conteo;

    JEL classification:

    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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