Long-term Employment and Growth Under Energy Transition in Colombia

The energy transition entails a gradual phase-out of carbon-intensive industries alongside the expansion of renewable energy production and consumption. Developing economies are central to this process: while they hold substantial renewable energy potential, they remain particularly vulnerable as they must simultaneously secure economic growth and employment while reducing reliance on fossil production. This paper adapts the International Labour Organization’s Green Jobs Assessment Model (GJAM) to assess the impacts of energy transition scenarios in Colombia, a middle-income country with strong dependence on fossils exports. Through an input–output analysis the study evaluates scenarios of substituting fossil fuels exports, shifting domestic consumption patterns towards electricity, and the expansion of sustainable energy alternatives. The results suggest that transition policies towards domestic adjustments in energy production and consumption could compensate the negative income and employment effects of a drop in fossils global demand, when done at the same time. Compared to a baseline scenario, the energy transition may have positive long-term effects on the economy on 2035, creating up to 1,218,206 jobs (4%) and increasing in 0.2% the economic growth.