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Reglas fiscales, cláusulas de escape y riesgo soberano

Author

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  • Federico Dueñas Valencia

    (Universidad de los Andes)

Abstract

Este trabajo presenta una primera aproximación teórica al análisis de los umbrales óptimos para activar cláusulas de escape en reglas fiscales, utilizando un modelo sencillo de deuda soberana con riesgo de default. En un entorno de tres períodos, un gobierno representativo decide el nivel de endeudamiento bajo incertidumbre sobre el ingreso futuro. El modelo impone una regla fiscal que restringe la deuda y permite comparar el bienestar bajo regímenes con y sin regla. Los resultados muestran que la flexibilidad fiscal mejora el bienestar cuando los choques son severos o persistentes, pero que la regla puede ser beneficiosa en escenarios de recuperación moderada al contener el sobreendeudamiento. Se identifica un umbral crítico de ingreso tras un choque: cuando el ingreso cae aproximadamente 1.6 desviaciones estándar por debajo de la media, es óptimo abandonar la regla. Esto proporciona una guía cuantitativa para diseñar cláusulas de escape basadas en criterios observables.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico Dueñas Valencia, 2025. "Reglas fiscales, cláusulas de escape y riesgo soberano," Documentos CEDE 21391, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:021391
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    File URL: https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstreams/handle/1992/76388/dcede2025-19.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deuda soberana; Riesgo de impago; Sostenibilidad de la deuda; Política fiscal; Reglas fiscales.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F64 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Environment
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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