Life-Cycle Fertility and Human Capital Accumulation
This paper develops and implements a semiparametric estimator for investi-gating, with panel data, the importance of human capital accumulation, nonsep-arable preferences of females and child care costs on females life-cycle fertility and labor supply behaviors. It presents a model in which the agents’ expecta-tions are correlated with their future choices and provides a set of conditions under which statistical inferences are possible from a short panel. Under the assumption that observed allocations are Pareto optimal, a dynamic model of female labor supply, labor force participation and fertility decision is estimated. In that model, experience on the job raises future wages, time spent nurturing children a ?ects utility, while time spent o ?the job in the past directly a ?ects current utility( or, indirectly through productivity in non-market sector). This paper then uses the estimates from the model to conduct di ?erent policy sim-ulations which shows that human capital accumulation is the most important determinant of life-cycle fertility behavior.
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