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College Football: Doing Less With More and More With Less


  • Smith, Gary

    (Pomona College)

  • Hawkins, Jordan

    (Pomona College)

  • Storrs, Jack

    (Pomona College)


There is a substantial and highly significant correlation between the performance of widely followed college football teams and the pre-college recruiting scores received by their players. This correlation implies a regression toward the mean that should be taken into account in the identification of under-performing and over-performing teams and can also be used to improve pre-season predictions of the performance of teams with highly rated and lowly rated recruits.

Suggested Citation

  • Smith, Gary & Hawkins, Jordan & Storrs, Jack, 2019. "College Football: Doing Less With More and More With Less," Economics Department, Working Paper Series 1008, Economics Department, Pomona College, revised 04 Jun 2019.
  • Handle: RePEc:clm:pomwps:1008

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Reid Dorsey-Palmateer & Gary Smith, 2007. "Shrunken interest rate forecasts are better forecasts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(6), pages 425-430.
    2. Stephen A. Bergman & Trevon D. Logan, 2016. "The Effect of Recruit Quality on College Football Team Performance," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 17(6), pages 578-600, August.
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    football recruting; regression to mean;

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