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The effects of disasters on income mobility: Bootstrap inference and measurement error simulations

  • Espen Villanger

We evaluate the impact of disasters on income mobility by drawing on "natural experiments". While the poor have a much higher probability of remaining poor when entering a crisis compared to normal times, there is also a negative effect in the year after. Richer households seem to be unaffected. A simple bootstrap method is proposed to facilitate statistical inference for mobility matrices. Also, we simulate measurement error to illustrate its magnitude on these matrices. Small errors induce a substantial downward bias of the probability of remaining poor, while comp arisons across states seem more robust, which is promising for impact analysis.

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Paper provided by CMI (Chr. Michelsen Institute), Bergen, Norway in its series CMI Working Papers with number WP 2003:6.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:chm:wpaper:wp2003-6
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  1. Rendtel, Ulrich & Langeheine, Rolf & Berntsen, Roland, 1998. "The Estimation of Poverty Dynamics Using Different Measurements of Household Income," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 44(1), pages 81-98, March.
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