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History-Dependent Risk Preferences: Evidence from Individual Choices and Implications for the Disposition Effect

Author

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  • Angie ANDRIKOGIANNOPOULOU

    (University of Geneva and Swiss Finance Institute)

  • Filippos PAPAKONSTANTINOU

    (Imperial College London)

Abstract

We use trading data from a sports wagering market to estimate individual risk preferences within the prospect-theory paradigm. The experimental-like features of this market greatly facilitate the estimation of risk preferences, while our long panel enables us to study whether preferences vary across individuals and depend on earlier outcomes. Our estimates i) extend support for existing experimental findings --- mild utility curvature, moderate loss aversion, and probability overweighting of extreme outcomes --- to a real market setting that shares similarities with traditional financial markets, ii) reveal that risk attitude is widely heterogeneous and history-dependent, and iii) indicate that prospect theory can better explain the prevalence of the disposition effect than previously thought.

Suggested Citation

  • Angie ANDRIKOGIANNOPOULOU & Filippos PAPAKONSTANTINOU, 2015. "History-Dependent Risk Preferences: Evidence from Individual Choices and Implications for the Disposition Effect," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 15-11, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Jul 2015.
    • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1511
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    File URL: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2585685
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nicholas C. Barberis & Lawrence J. Jin & Baolian Wang, 2020. "Prospect Theory and Stock Market Anomalies," NBER Working Papers 27155, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Artem Stopochkin & Inessa Sytnik & Janusz Wielki & Nataliia Zemlianska, 2021. "Methodology for Building Trader's Investment Strategy Based on Assessment of the Market Value of the Company," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 913-935.
    3. Nicholas Barberis & Lawrence J. Jin & Baolian Wang, 2021. "Prospect Theory and Stock Market Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(5), pages 2639-2687, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk Preferences; State Dependence; History Dependence; Heterogeneity; Prospect Theory; Disposition Effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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