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Bubbles Everywhere in Human Affairs

Author

Listed:
  • Monika GISLER

    (ETH Zurich)

  • Didier SORNETTE

    (ETH Zurich and Swiss Finance Institute)

Abstract

We review the “social bubble” hypothesis, which holds that strong social interactions between enthusiastic supporters of new ventures weave a network of reinforcing feedbacks that lead to a widespread endorsement and extraordinary commitment by those involved in the projects, beyond what would be rationalized by a standard cost-benefit analysis in the presence of extraordinary uncertainties and risks. Starting with analyses of previous bubbles, in particular the famous “Tulip mania”, the social bubble hypothesis is illustrated by the example of the Apollo project. The social bubble hypothesis suggests novel mechanisms to catalyze longterm investments, innovations and risk-taking by the private sector, which otherwise would not be supported.

Suggested Citation

  • Monika GISLER & Didier SORNETTE, 2010. "Bubbles Everywhere in Human Affairs," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 10-16, Swiss Finance Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1016
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. D. Sornette, 2014. "Physics and Financial Economics (1776-2014): Puzzles, Ising and Agent-Based models," Papers 1404.0243, arXiv.org.
    2. Sandro Lera & Didier Sornette, 2015. "Secular bipolar growth rate of the real US GDP per capita: implications for understanding past and future economic growth," Papers 1607.04136, arXiv.org.
    3. Didier SORNETTE, 2014. "Physics and Financial Economics (1776-2014): Puzzles, Ising and Agent-Based Models," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 14-25, Swiss Finance Institute.
    4. von der Becke Susanne & Sornette Didier, 2019. "An Asset-Based Framework of Credit Creation (applied to the Global Financial Crisis)," Accounting, Economics, and Law: A Convivium, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-21, July.
    5. Gisler, Monika & Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan, 2011. "Innovation as a social bubble: The example of the Human Genome Project," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 1412-1425.
    6. Didier Sornette & Spencer Wheatley & Peter Cauwels, 2019. "The Fair Reward Problem: The Illusion Of Success And How To Solve It," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(03), pages 1-52, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    social bubbles; innovation; positive feedbacks; financial bubbles; tulip mania; Apollo program;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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