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Polarized Media and Inflation Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Selva Demiralp
  • Orkun Saka
  • Michael Weber

Abstract

We study how politically polarized television news shapes household inflation expectations in Turkey. We combine new household panel data with transcript-based measures of channel-level inflation coverage during prime-time news and a large-scale randomized information experiment. Inflation coverage differs sharply across politically aligned channels, and viewers sort into outlets consistent with their political affiliations. Within-person estimates show that greater coverage on a respondent’s initially preferred channel leads to higher inflation expectations, with effects concentrated among viewers of politically neutral channels. Experimental evidence indicates that belief updating depends on prior anchoring as well as on source credibility and reveals the political costs of rising inflation expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Selva Demiralp & Orkun Saka & Michael Weber, 2026. "Polarized Media and Inflation Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 12854, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12854
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp12854.pdf
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media

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