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Terrorism and Voting: The Rise of Right-Wing Populism in Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Navid Sabet
  • Marius Liebald
  • Guido Friebel

Abstract

We document that right-wing terrorism leads to significant increases in the vote share for the right-wing, populist AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) party in Germany. To identify causal effects, we exploit quasi-random variation between successful and failed attacks across municipalities. Using the SOEP, a longitudinal panel of individuals, we find successful terror leads individuals to prefer the AfD and worry about migration. Political parties — the AfD in particular — adjust their messaging in election manifestos in response to terror. Overall, and in contrast to previous work, we find terrorism is consequential to the rise of right-wing populism in a Western, multi-party democratic system.

Suggested Citation

  • Navid Sabet & Marius Liebald & Guido Friebel, 2023. "Terrorism and Voting: The Rise of Right-Wing Populism in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 10653, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10653
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    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp10653.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Karapanagiotis, Pantelis & Liebald, Marius, 2023. "Entity matching with similarity encoding: A supervised learning recommendation framework for linking (big) data," SAFE Working Paper Series 398, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
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      More about this item

      Keywords

      terrorism; populism; media; voting;
      All these keywords.

      JEL classification:

      • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
      • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
      • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media

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