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Terrorism and Voting: The Rise of Right-Wing Populism in Germany

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  • Navid Sabet
  • Marius Liebald
  • Guido Friebel

Abstract

We document that right-wing terrorism leads to significant increases in vote share for the right-wing, populist AfD (Alternative fur Deutschland) party in Germany. To identify causal effects, we exploit quasi-random variation between successful and failed attacks across municipalities. Using the SOEP, a longitudinal panel of individuals, we find successful terror leads individuals to prefer the AfD and worry about migration. Political parties—the AfD in particular—adjust their messaging in election manifestos in response to terror. Overall, and in contrast to previous work, we find terrorism is consequential to the rise of right-wing populism in a Western, multiparty democratic system.

Suggested Citation

  • Navid Sabet & Marius Liebald & Guido Friebel, 2025. "Terrorism and Voting: The Rise of Right-Wing Populism in Germany," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 407-440, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:17:y:2025:i:3:p:407-40
    DOI: 10.1257/pol.20230615
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Karapanagiotis, Pantelis & Liebald, Marius, 2023. "Entity matching with similarity encoding: A supervised learning recommendation framework for linking (big) data," SAFE Working Paper Series 398, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
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    Cited by:

    1. Klinenberg, Danny, 2024. "Selling Violent Extremism," Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, Working Paper Series qt2rj4t2rh, Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, University of California.

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      More about this item

      JEL classification:

      • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
      • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
      • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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