IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cem/doctra/882.html

Potential Adoption and Economic Impact of Drought-Tolerant HB4 Soybeans in Argentina

Author

Listed:
  • Claudio Dunan
  • Marcos Gallacher
  • Daniel Lema
  • Ignacio Pace

Abstract

We evaluate potential adoption of drought tolerant HB4 technology in soybeans. Empirical analysis focuses on Argentine agriculture. The following two-step approach is used. First, a choice experiment is carried out to estimate average willingness-to-pay (WTP) for the HB4 technology. Average WTP is estimated at 145kg/ha of soybean grain, equivalent to 5% of the average soybean yield in Argentina, and approximately 8 % of per-hectare direct soybean production costs (excluding harvest). WTP varies among regions, being 26% higher for farmers in regions with yield gaps (actual vs. potential yield) above 20% compared to farmers in regions with yield gaps below 20%. WTP results allow an estimate of the minimum rateof-return demanded by farmers for adoption of the HB4 technology. In the second stage, county-level potential adoption of the technology is evaluated as a function of seed price charged by the developer and required rate-of return by producers. Under alternative adoption scenarios, results show that the HB4 technology has the potential to result in output increases ranging from 1.4 to 3.8 million tons, equivalent to 3 – 7 percent of aggregate soybean production.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudio Dunan & Marcos Gallacher & Daniel Lema & Ignacio Pace, 2024. "Potential Adoption and Economic Impact of Drought-Tolerant HB4 Soybeans in Argentina," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 882, Universidad del CEMA.
    • Handle: RePEc:cem:doctra:882
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ucema.edu.ar/sites/default/files/2024-09/dt882.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Deepak K. Ray & James S. Gerber & Graham K. MacDonald & Paul C. West, 2015. "Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-9, May.
    2. Becky McCorkle, 2007. "Demographic Influences on Willingness to Pay for Cold Tolerance Technology," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1315-1323.
    3. Kassie, Girma T. & Abdulai, Awudu & Greene, William H. & Shiferaw, Bekele & Abate, Tsedeke & Tarekegne, Amsal & Sutcliffe, Chloe, 2017. "Modeling Preference and Willingness to Pay for Drought Tolerance (DT) in Maize in Rural Zimbabwe," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 465-477.
    4. McCorkle, Becky, 2007. "Demographic Influences on Willingness to Pay for Cold Tolerance Technology?," SS-AAEA Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 2007, pages 1-22.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Josephson, Anna & Michler, Jeffrey D., 2018. "Viewpoint: Beasts of the field? Ethics in agricultural and applied economics," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-11.
    2. Sanyal, Prabuddha & Ulimwengu, John, 2011. "Joint estimation of farmers' stated willingness to pay for agricultural services:," IFPRI discussion papers 1070, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Cao, Juan & Zhang, Zhao & Tao, Fulu & Chen, Yi & Luo, Xiangzhong & Xie, Jun, 2023. "Forecasting global crop yields based on El Nino Southern Oscillation early signals," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    4. Jeetendra Prakash Aryal & Tek B. Sapkota & Ritika Khurana & Arun Khatri-Chhetri & Dil Bahadur Rahut & M. L. Jat, 2020. "Climate change and agriculture in South Asia: adaptation options in smallholder production systems," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(6), pages 5045-5075, August.
    5. Rosa Carbonell-Bojollo & Oscar Veroz-Gonzalez & Rafaela Ordoñez-Fernandez & Manuel Moreno-Garcia & Gottlieb Basch & Amir Kassam & Miguel A. Repullo-Ruiberriz de Torres & Emilio J. Gonzalez-Sanchez, 2019. "The Effect of Conservation Agriculture and Environmental Factors on CO 2 Emissions in a Rainfed Crop Rotation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-19, July.
    6. Dawuni, Peter, 2024. "Achieving Food Security Through Agricultural Water Security of Smallholder Farmers in Ghana," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 12(01), January.
    7. Zhao, Xin & Calvin, Katherine & Patel, Pralit & Abigail, Snyder & Wise, Marshall & Waldhoff, Stephanie & Hejazi, Mohamad & Edmonds, James, 2021. "Impacts of interannual climate and biophysical variability on global agriculture markets," Conference papers 333245, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Qiang Wang & Yuanfan Li & Rongrong Li, 2024. "Rethinking the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis across 214 countries: the impacts of 12 economic, institutional, technological, resource, and social factors," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-19, December.
    9. Linnenluecke, Martina K. & Smith, Tom & McKnight, Brent, 2016. "Environmental finance: A research agenda for interdisciplinary finance research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 124-130.
    10. Janusz Prusiński & Radosław Nowicki, 2020. "Effect of planting density and row spacing on the yielding of soybean (Glycine max L. Merrill)," Plant, Soil and Environment, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 66(12), pages 616-623.
    11. Shahzad, Muhammad Faisal & Abdulai, Awudu, 2020. "Adaptation to extreme weather conditions and farm performance in rural Pakistan," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    12. Nicholas Apergis & Mehmet Pinar & Emre Unlu, 2024. "Does classification of green aid flows matter for environmental quality?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(1), pages 53-73, January.
    13. Kamini Yadav & Hatim M. E. Geli, 2021. "Prediction of Crop Yield for New Mexico Based on Climate and Remote Sensing Data for the 1920–2019 Period," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-27, December.
    14. Meressa, Abrha Megos & Navrud, Stale, . "Not my cup of coffee: Farmers’ preferences for coffee variety traits – Lessons for crop breeding in the age of climate change," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 9(3).
    15. Kukal, M.S. & Irmak, S., 2020. "Impact of irrigation on interannual variability in United States agricultural productivity," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    16. Osiemo, Jamleck & Sibiko, Kenneth Waluse & Ng'ang'a, Stanley Karanja & Notenbaert, An M.O., 2024. "Are dairy farmers willing to pay for improved forage varieties? Experimental evidence from Kenya," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    17. Astrid Mastenbroek & Irma Sirutyte & Robert Sparrow, 2021. "Information Barriers to Adoption of Agricultural Technologies: Willingness to Pay for Certified Seed of an Open Pollinated Maize Variety in Northern Uganda," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(1), pages 180-201, February.
    18. Ibrahim Sufiyan & J.I. Magaji & A.T.Ogah & K.D. Mohammed & K.K Geidam, 2020. "Effect Of Climatic Variables On Agricultural Productivity And Distribution In Plateau State Nigeria," Environment & Ecosystem Science (EES), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 5-9, February.
    19. Simin Deng & Xuezhi Tan & Bingjun Liu, 2025. "Impacts of changes in climate extremes on maize yields over Mainland China," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 17(1), pages 185-205, February.
    20. Collins, Brian & Ullah, Najeeb & Song, Youhong & Pembleton, Keith G., 2025. "A novel approach to accelerate ideotyping using model-aided envirotyping," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cem:doctra:882. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lucila Solla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cemaaar.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.