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Potential Adoption and Economic Impact of Drought-Tolerant HB4 Soybeans in Argentina

Author

Listed:
  • Claudio Dunan
  • Marcos Gallacher
  • Daniel Lema
  • Ignacio Pace

Abstract

We evaluate potential adoption of drought tolerant HB4 technology in soybeans. Empirical analysis focuses on Argentine agriculture. The following two-step approach is used. First, a choice experiment is carried out to estimate average willingness-to-pay (WTP) for the HB4 technology. Average WTP is estimated at 145kg/ha of soybean grain, equivalent to 5% of the average soybean yield in Argentina, and approximately 8 % of per-hectare direct soybean production costs (excluding harvest). WTP varies among regions, being 26% higher for farmers in regions with yield gaps (actual vs. potential yield) above 20% compared to farmers in regions with yield gaps below 20%. WTP results allow an estimate of the minimum rateof-return demanded by farmers for adoption of the HB4 technology. In the second stage, county-level potential adoption of the technology is evaluated as a function of seed price charged by the developer and required rate-of return by producers. Under alternative adoption scenarios, results show that the HB4 technology has the potential to result in output increases ranging from 1.4 to 3.8 million tons, equivalent to 3 – 7 percent of aggregate soybean production.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudio Dunan & Marcos Gallacher & Daniel Lema & Ignacio Pace, 2024. "Potential Adoption and Economic Impact of Drought-Tolerant HB4 Soybeans in Argentina," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 882, Universidad del CEMA.
    • Handle: RePEc:cem:doctra:882
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    File URL: https://ucema.edu.ar/sites/default/files/2024-09/dt882.pdf
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    JEL classification:

    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services

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