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International Portfolio Management, Currency Risk and the Euro

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  • Santis, Giorgio De
  • Gerard, Bruno
  • Hillion, Pierre

Abstract

We investigate the impact of currency risk and the adoption of the euro on the international portfolio choices. We use a parsimonious GARCH parameterization to estimate a conditional version of the International Capital Asset Pricing Model and generate out of sample forecasts of assets returns and market and currency risk exposures. We implement out of sample dynamic asset allocation strategies that take advantage of the predictability and time varying nature of both risk exposures and risk premiums. We find that strategies that include equities and currencies significantly outperform strategies that exclude currencies. Further most of the benefits accrue from managing non-EMU currency exposures. This suggests that the portfolio trade-offs for international investors are unlikely to drastically altered by the introduction of the euro.

Suggested Citation

  • Santis, Giorgio De & Gerard, Bruno & Hillion, Pierre, 1999. "International Portfolio Management, Currency Risk and the Euro," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt7988m6jk, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdl:anderf:qt7988m6jk
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
    2. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
    3. Tae-Hwy Lee & Yong Bao & Burak Saltoglu, 2006. "Evaluating predictive performance of value-at-risk models in emerging markets: a reality check," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 101-128.
    4. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
    5. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Lange, Steve, 1999. "Forecasting financial market volatility: Sample frequency vis-a-vis forecast horizon," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(5), pages 457-477, December.
    6. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    7. Engle, Robert F, 2000. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation - A Simple Class of Multivariate GARCH Models," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt56j4143f, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Giurda & Elias Tzavalis, 2004. "Is the Currency Risk Priced in Equity Markets?," Working Papers 511, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

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