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Reestimating the Phillips Curve and the NAIRU: Working Paper 2008-06

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  • Robert Arnold

Abstract

Recent research indicates that there have been fund amental changes in the way the economy works since the mid-1980s, including a reduction in the volatility of real GDP growth and lower rates of inflation and unemployment. Those changes have the potential to alter the inflation-unemployment tradeoff underlying the Phillips curve relationship and, consequently, the estimate of the NAIRU. This paper presents updated empirical estimates of the Philips curve and the NAIRU and explores the possibility that structural changes in the economy have shifted the underlying

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Arnold, 2008. "Reestimating the Phillips Curve and the NAIRU: Working Paper 2008-06," Working Papers 20009, Congressional Budget Office.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbo:wpaper:20009
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    File URL: https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/110th-congress-2007-2008/workingpaper/2008-06_0.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Guisinger, Amy Y. & Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben & Owyang, Michael T. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2018. "A state-level analysis of Okun's law," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 239-248.
    2. Aysun, Uluc & Bouvet, Florence & Hofler, Richard, 2014. "An alternative measure of structural unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 592-603.
    3. Stefan Reitz & Ulf D. Slopek, 2014. "Fixing The Phillips Curve: The Case Of Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity In The Us," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 122-131, March.
    4. Robert W. Arnold, 2009. "The challenges of estimating potential output in real time," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Jul), pages 271-290.

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