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International Risk Management in BREXIT and Policy Options

Author

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  • Paul J.J. Welfens

    (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW))

Abstract

BREXIT is a historical step for the UK and the EU27 which could bring a strong Pound deprecation, an increase in risk premiums for British bonds and a transitory rise of financial market volatility plus a long term reduction of economic growth in the UK. Macroprudential supervision thus is a crucial policy challenge for EU28 in the context of BREXIT and the European Systemic Risk Board thus should have a critical role in 2018 and the following years. The IMF's FSAP as well as the ESRB thus should timely analyze the potential risk of BREXIT and consider adequate policy options to reduce or eliminate risks. As regards the ESRB this requires full cooperation of all EU28 actors in that organization. Moreover, the EU27 faces major problems in terms of prudential supervision after BREXIT since a very large part of EU27 wholesale banking markets are in the UK and thus not regulated by the EU after March 29, 2019. The EU Commission's competence for EU trade policy as well as international investment treaties gives the EU the opportunity to offer the UK not only a - limited - Free Trade Agreement but an international investment treaty as well, including options for global cooperation. Contract continuity is a dangerous BREXIT challenge for EU-UK negotiations. The influence of US regulation on Europe will increase due to BREXIT. Several policy innovations are proposed.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul J.J. Welfens, 2018. "International Risk Management in BREXIT and Policy Options," EIIW Discussion paper disbei242, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:bwu:eiiwdp:disbei242
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    File URL: https://eiiw.wiwi.uni-wuppertal.de/fileadmin/eiiw/Daten/Publikationen/Gelbe_Reihe/disbei242.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul J.J. Welfens & David Hanrahan, 2018. "BREXIT: Key Analytical Issues and Insights from Revised Economic Forecasts," EIIW Discussion paper disbei235, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhu, Delong & Li, Zhe & Mishra, Arunodaya Raj, 2023. "Evaluation of the critical success factors of dynamic enterprise risk management in manufacturing SMEs using an integrated fuzzy decision-making model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 186(PA).
    2. Oliveira, Cíntia Carla Melgaço de & Brittes, José Luiz Pereira & Silveira Junior, Vivaldo, 2019. "Dynamic operating conditions strategy for water hybrid cooling under variable heating demand," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C), pages 635-645.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroprudential supervision; Brexit; EU; financial risk; economic policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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