China's Growth in Transition: Implications for the Thai Economy
China has rapidly emerged as a global economic superpower and is expected to remain the main growth driver in the next phase of the global economy. Questions often raised are: How long can China’s extraordinary growth be sustained? What direction the Chinese economy is heading towards and what does it imply about opportunities and risks for other countries, including Thailand from our point of interest? From a review of China’s growth pattern and an in-depth analysis of sources of growth, we put forward that, in the short to medium term, China’s potential output growth will remain strong driven mainly by continued capital deepening. In the longer term, however, factor market distortions, misallocation of resources, and the demographic shift in China will increasingly become the key bottlenecks to China’s sustainable growth. Realizing these growth limitations, the Chinese leaders have recently shifted the growth paradigm by resorting to technology leapfrogging in lifting productivity and moving up the value chain. This will significantly change the future pattern of production and exports in China. The Thai economy has greatly benefited from the rising of the Chinese economy through various trade channels. But in order for Thailand to continue to reap these benefits, a sole reliance on the same export pattern will not be enough. Thailand should learn from China’s success in productivity and industrial upgrading and technological advancement, as serious efforts in this direction are much needed for Thailand to escape the middle income trap.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 273 Samsen Road, Bangkhunprom, Bangkok|
Phone: (662) 283-5353
Fax: (662) 280-0449
Web page: http://www.bot.or.th/
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bth:wpaper:2011-02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Pym Manopimoke)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.