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Sovereign Credit Default Swaps: Market Developments and Factors behind Price Changes

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  • Junnosuke Shino

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Kouji Takahashi

    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract

This paper examines sovereign credit default swaps (CDSs), which have attracted attention since the emergence of the fiscal deficit problem in Greece, with particular focus on the expansion of the sovereign CDS market, the relationship between CDS premiums and fiscal risk variables, and the international co-movement of CDS premiums. The analysis reveals the following: (1) CDS transaction volume has recently expanded rapidly, mainly reflecting the significant increase in fiscal expenditure in some countries and the heightened awareness of European sovereign risk; (2) however, the degree of interrelation between CDS premiums and actual fiscal risk varies by country; and (3) concerns over sovereign risk in some continental European countries may have spilled over to other countries, as seen in the increase in the international co-movement of CDS premiums among major countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Junnosuke Shino & Kouji Takahashi, 2010. "Sovereign Credit Default Swaps: Market Developments and Factors behind Price Changes," Bank of Japan Review Series 10-E-2, Bank of Japan.
  • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojrev:10-e-2
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    File URL: http://www.boj.or.jp/en/research/wps_rev/rev_2010/data/rev10e02.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. León, Carlos & Leiton, Karen & Pérez, Jhonatan, 2014. "Extracting the sovereigns’ CDS market hierarchy: A correlation-filtering approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 415(C), pages 407-420.
    2. Junnosuke Shino, 2010. "Lender of Last Resort Policy in a Global Game and the Role of Depositors Aggregate Behavior as Signaling," Departmental Working Papers 201007, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    3. Sanae Ohno, 2013. "European Sovereign Risk: The Knock-on Effects of Default Risk across the Public and Financial Sectors," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 9(1), pages 139-170, January.
    4. Gabriele Galati & John Lewis & Steven Poelhekke & Chen Zhou, 2011. "Have market views on the sustainability of fiscal burdens influenced monetary authorities' credibility?," DNB Working Papers 304, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    5. Aldona Juozapaviciene & Agne Montvidaite, 2012. "Peculiarities Of Economics Recovery After Worldwide Economic Crisis In 2008–2009," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 7(2), pages 35-55, June.
    6. Junnosuke Shino, 2011. "A Global Game Analysis of Emergent Liquidity Provision and the Role of Creditors' Aggregate Behavior as Signaling," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 11-E-7, Bank of Japan.

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