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Política fiscal y vulnerabilidad fiscal en Uruguay: 1976-2006

Author

Listed:
  • Isabel Rial

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Leonardo Vicente

    (Banco Central del Uruguay)

Abstract

Este documento analiza la historia de 30 años de vulnerabilidad fiscal (VF) en Uruguay desde una perspectiva global. Luego de discutir el marco conceptual propuesto, basado en Hemming y Petrie (2000), se construye una serie de indicadores que intentan captar las distintas fuentes de vulnerabilidad: la posición fiscal inicial, exposición al riesgo de corto plazo derivado del entorno macro-financiero, riesgos inherentes a la sostenibilidad de la política fiscal en el mediano y largo plazo y debilidades estructurales que afectan a la política fiscal. Los diez indicadores seleccionados, que confluyen en un índice global de vulnerabilidad fiscal (IGVF), son utilizados para el análisis de las finanzas públicas de Uruguay en el periodo 1976-2006. El documento concluye que la VF ha sido elevada en todo el periodo, ubicándose actualmente en niveles más altos que al inicio del periodo. No obstante, la VF se ha reducido en los últimos años, al influjo de condiciones externas muy favorables, comunes a las economías de la región y de medidas discrecionales de política. Pese a varios avances vinculados a reformas estructurales, los mismos han sido relativamente lentos e incompletos, dejando una agenda de temas pendientes en el campo institucional. Por último, el IGVF construido es un indicador sintético de riesgo fiscal, siendo una herramienta potencialmente útil para el diseño de estrategias de política fiscal.

Suggested Citation

  • Isabel Rial & Leonardo Vicente, 2008. "Política fiscal y vulnerabilidad fiscal en Uruguay: 1976-2006," Documentos de trabajo 2008005, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    • Handle: RePEc:bku:doctra:2008005
    as

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    File URL: https://www.bcu.gub.uy/Estadisticas-e-Indicadores/Documentos%20de%20Trabajo/5.2008.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2008
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. João T. Jalles, 2020. "Explaining Africa's public consumption procyclicality: Revisiting old evidence," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 297-323, August.
    2. Maren Froemel, 2014. "Imperfect Financial Markets and the Cyclicality of Social Spending," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2014-11, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    3. João Tovar Jalles, 2019. "On the Cyclicality of Social Expenditure: New Time-Varying evidence from Developing Economies," Working Papers REM 2019/82, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    4. Jalles, João Tovar, 2021. "Dynamics of government spending cyclicality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 411-427.
    5. Jalles, João Tovar, 2020. "Social expenditure cyclicality: New time-varying evidence in developing economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(3).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Política Fiscal; Vulnerabilidad; Déficit Fiscal; Deuda Pública;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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