Une première comparaison des droits à pension des ménages français et américains
The aim of this paper is to build and estimate a macroeconomic model of credit risk for the French manufacturing sector. This model is based on Wilson's CreditPortfolioView model (1997a, 1997b); it enables us to simulate loss distributions for a credit portfolio for several macroeconomic scenarios. We implement two simulation procedures based on two assumptions relative to probabilities of default (PDs): in the first procedure, firms are assumed to have identical default probabilities; in the second, individual risk is taken into account. The empirical results indicate that these simulation procedures lead to quite different loss distributions. For instance, a negative one standard deviation shock on output leads to a maximum loss of 3.07% of the financial debt of the French manufacturing sector, with a probability of 99%, under the identical default probability hypothesis versus 2.61% with individual default probabilities.
|Date of creation:||2010|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Banque de France 31 Rue Croix des Petits Champs LABOLOG - 49-1404 75049 PARIS|
Web page: http://www.banque-france.fr/
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:280. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael brassart)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.