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Expectativas y prima por riesgo inflacionario bajo una medida de compensación a la inflación

Author

Listed:
  • Luis Fernando Melo Velandia

    ()

  • Joan Camilo Granados Castro

    ()

Abstract

En este documento se estima una medida de compensación inflacionaria (Break Even Inflation) usando los rendimientos de los TES en pesos y de los TES indexados a la UVR para el periodo comprendido entre enero de 2003 y noviembre de 2009. Esta medida se descompone en expectativas de inflación y prima por riesgo inflacionario. Las expectativas de inflación se calculan con base en la representación de estado espacio de un modelo afín de estructura a término extendido. Este relaciona la rentabilidad de los bonos nominales y reales, a distintas maduraciones, con la inflación observada y dos factores no observables. Con el objeto de mejorar los pronósticos, este modelo incorpora las expectativas de inflación a 12 meses de la encuesta mensual del Banco de la República. Los resultados muestran una tendencia a la baja de las expectativas de inflación. Esto se puede deber al aumento de la confianza en la política monetaria por parte de los agentes. Otro resultado que soporta esta hipótesis es que la prima por riesgo inflacionario presenta una tendencia decreciente a lo largo de la muestra para horizontes de tiempo de mediano y largo plazo (2 y 5 años). Adicionalmente, los resultados indican que a corto plazo, el break even es un buen indicador de expectativas de inflación. Sin embargo, para el mediano y largo plazo esto no se cumple dado que la prima por riesgo inflacionario toma relevancia para mayores periodos de maduración.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Joan Camilo Granados Castro, 2010. "Expectativas y prima por riesgo inflacionario bajo una medida de compensación a la inflación," Borradores de Economia 589, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:589
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrés Felipe Londoño & Jorge Andrés Tamayo & Carlos Alberto Velásquez, 2012. "Dinámica de la política monetaria e inflación objetivo en Colombia: una aproximación FAVAR," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 30(68), pages 14-71, Junio.
    2. Aguilar-Argaez Ana María & Elizondo Rocío & Roldán-Peña Jessica, 2016. "Break-Even-Inflation's Decomposition in Mexico," Working Papers 2016-22, Banco de México.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Break even inflation; prima por riesgo inflacionario; expectativas de inflación; modelos de estado espacio; modelos afines de estructura a término. Classification JEL: C13; C50; E31; E43.;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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