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Demanda De Importaciones Para El Caso Colombiano: 1980 - 2004

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  • Juan Nicolás Hernández

Abstract

El presente documento explora la existencia de una relación de largo plazo entre la demanda de importaciones totales, de bienes de consumo, de bienes intermedios y de bienes de capital con el ingreso interno y la tasa de cambio real a través de un modelo multivariado VEC. Adicionalmente pretende hallar las elasticidades ingreso y precio en cada uno de los casos considerando hechos tan relevantes durante el periodo de estudio como el proceso de apertura. En la mayoría de los casos fue posible establecer dicha relación, aunque la bondad del pronóstico difiere para cada una de las especificaciones encontradas. La interpretación de las elasticidades conforme indica la literatura proviene de la función de impulso respuesta o de la denominada matriz C. Al aplicar en el contexto de la balanza de pagos las elasticidades estimadas se estableció que aquellas sugeridas por la matriz C mostraban un mejor ajuste.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Nicolás Hernández, 2005. "Demanda De Importaciones Para El Caso Colombiano: 1980 - 2004," Borradores de Economia 356, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:356
    DOI: 10.32468/be.356
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521770415.
    2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
    3. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654.
    4. Leonardo Villar, 1995. "Evolución de las importaciones: ciclos de apertura y restricción," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Brieuc Monfort, 2008. "Chile: Trade Performance, Trade Liberalization, and Competitiveness," IMF Working Papers 2008/128, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Importaciones; elasticidad; cointegración;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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