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Understanding the Money-Prices Relationship Under Low and High Inflation Regimes: Argentina 1970-2005

Author

Listed:
  • Emiliano Basco

    () (Central Bank of Argentina)

  • Laura D´Amato

    () (Central Bank of Argentina)

  • Lorena Garegnani

    () (Central Bank of Argentina)

Abstract

Recent cross-country empirical evidence indicates that the money-prices relationship depends on the average rate of inflation. This relationship is strong in economies with high inflation, but weakens under low inflation. Based on these findings, we study the dependence of the money-prices relationship on the level of inflation in Argentina along the last 35 years. We use descriptive analysis as well as cointegration tests to study the long run relationship between money growth and inflation. Proportionality holds for the high inflation period but weakens under low inflation. Money velocity is quite volatile but keeps a positive correlation with inflation in the long run. Under low inflation, velocity correlates negatively with money growth, a result consistent with the empirical evidence in the literature. Using VAR analysis, we focus on the transmission of nominal shocks to inflation in the short run. We enlarge the set of information to include other relevant macroeconomic variables such as the nominal interest rate, the multilateral nominal exchange rate depreciation and GDP growth. These results allow us to identify different dynamics of money growth and inflation under low and high inflation. In particular we are able to capture the role played by inflation expectations implicit in nominal interest rates in driving the dynamics of money growth and inflation under high inflation. Although the money growth-inflation short run relationship weakens under low inflation, money continues to play a role in explaining inflation dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Emiliano Basco & Laura D´Amato & Lorena Garegnani, 2006. "Understanding the Money-Prices Relationship Under Low and High Inflation Regimes: Argentina 1970-2005," BCRA Working Paper Series 200613, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bcr:wpaper:200613
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
    2. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
    3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    4. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
    5. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "Liquidity Effects and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 346-353, May.
    6. Leeper, Eric M. & Gordon, David B., 1992. "In search of the liquidity effect," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 341-369, June.
    7. Paul De Grauwe & Magdalena Polan, 2005. "Is Inflation Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(2), pages 239-259, June.
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    9. Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Chris Edmond, 2003. "On the Sluggish Response of Prices to Money in an Inventory-Theoretic Model of Money Demand," NBER Working Papers 10016, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Favero, Carlo A., 2001. "Applied Macroeconometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296850.
    11. Gerald P. Dwyer & R. W. Hafer, 1999. "Are money growth and inflation still related?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q2, pages 32-43.
    12. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:cml:incocp:2en-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. M S Mohanty & Philip Turner, 2008. "Monetary policy transmission in emerging market economies: what is new?," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 1-59 Bank for International Settlements.
    3. repec:cml:incocp:2sp-4 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Argentina; cointegration; inflation; money growth; money velocity; VAR models;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

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