Understanding the Money-Prices Relationship Under Low and High Inflation Regimes: Argentina 1970-2005
Recent cross-country empirical evidence indicates that the money-prices relationship depends on the average rate of inflation. This relationship is strong in economies with high inflation, but weakens under low inflation. Based on these findings, we study the dependence of the money-prices relationship on the level of inflation in Argentina along the last 35 years. We use descriptive analysis as well as cointegration tests to study the long run relationship between money growth and inflation. Proportionality holds for the high inflation period but weakens under low inflation. Money velocity is quite volatile but keeps a positive correlation with inflation in the long run. Under low inflation, velocity correlates negatively with money growth, a result consistent with the empirical evidence in the literature. Using VAR analysis, we focus on the transmission of nominal shocks to inflation in the short run. We enlarge the set of information to include other relevant macroeconomic variables such as the nominal interest rate, the multilateral nominal exchange rate depreciation and GDP growth. These results allow us to identify different dynamics of money growth and inflation under low and high inflation. In particular we are able to capture the role played by inflation expectations implicit in nominal interest rates in driving the dynamics of money growth and inflation under high inflation. Although the money growth-inflation short run relationship weakens under low inflation, money continues to play a role in explaining inflation dynamics.
|Date of creation:||Aug 2006|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Reconquista 266 - C1003ABF - Buenos Aires|
Phone: (54-11) 4348-3582
Fax: (54-11) 4348-3794
Web page: http://www.bcra.gov.ar
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paul De Grauwe & Magdalena Polan, 2001.
"Is Inflation Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon?,"
International Economics Working Papers Series
wpie009, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën, International Economics.
- Paul De Grauwe & Magdalena Polan, 2005. "Is Inflation Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(2), pages 239-259, 06.
- De Grauwe, Paul & Polan, Magdalena, 2001. "Is Inflation Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2841, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992.
"Liquidity Effects and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 346-353, May.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1992. "Liquidity effects and the monetary transmission mechanism," Staff Report 150, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1992. "Liquidity Effects and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," NBER Working Papers 3974, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Chris Edmond, 2003. "On the Sluggish Response of Prices to Money in an Inventory-Theoretic Model of Money Demand," NBER Working Papers 10016, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eric M. Leeper & David B. Gordon, 1991.
"In search of the liquidity effect,"
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
91-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Canova, Fabio, 1993.
"Detrending and Business Cycle Facts,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sims, Christopher A., 1992.
"Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1992. "Interpreting the Macroeconomic Time Series Facts: The Effects of Monetary Policy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1011, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
- Favero, Carlo A., 2001. "Applied Macroeconometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296850.
- Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
- Gerald P. Dwyer & R. W. Hafer, 1999. "Are money growth and inflation still related?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q2, pages 32-43.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcr:wpaper:200613. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Federico Grillo)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.