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A Nonparametric Analysis of Regional Unemployment Dynamics in Britain

Author

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  • Marco Bianchi
  • Gylfi Zoega

Abstract

This paper estimates the probability distribution of relative county unemployment in Britain for the years 1981-1995. We find that the distribution is unimodal in all years, with a falling variance between 1989 and 1994. We use bootstrap methods to determine critical values for the two tails of the distribution, and analyze intra-distribution dynamics. An unemployment shock is defined as a move between a tail and the centre of the distribution (and vice versa). The persistence of a shock is defined by the number of time periods a country stays in a state before switching to another state. We find that positive shocks (those that reduce unemployment) tend to persist longer than negative ones. We also calculate transition probabilities and find that the probability of leaving any given state is very low, and is lower for the state of high relative unemployment than for the state of low relative unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Bianchi & Gylfi Zoega, 1996. "A Nonparametric Analysis of Regional Unemployment Dynamics in Britain," Archive Discussion Papers 9620, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkewp:9620
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    Cited by:

    1. Fabio Canova & Evi Pappa, 2006. "Does It Cost to Be Virtuous? The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Constraints," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004, pages 327-370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. repec:rre:publsh:v:37:y:2007:i:3:p:282-302 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Joanna Tyrowicz & Piotr Wojcik, 2010. "Active Labour Market Policies and Unemployment Convergence in Transition," Review of Economic Analysis, Digital Initiatives at the University of Waterloo Library, vol. 2(1), pages 46-72, January.
    4. Profit, Stefan, 1997. "Twin peaks in regional unemployment and returns to scale in job-matching in the Czech Republic," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1997,63, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    5. Stefan Profit, 1998. "Twin peaks in regional unemployment and returns to scale in job-matching in the Czech Republic," ERSA conference papers ersa98p42, European Regional Science Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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