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Kausalität in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften: Welche Ursachen hat die Finanzkrise?

Author

Listed:
  • Bernholz, Peter
  • Faber, Malte
  • Petersen, Thomas

Abstract

Die Frage nach der Kausalität fällt in die Methodologie. Methodologie ist in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften ein Bereich, der sowohl bei Ökonomen als auch bei Philosophen kaum Beachtung findet. Ökonomik hat sich ursprünglich als eine kausal erklärende Wissenschaft verstanden. Sie wollte für die Wirtschaft zeigen, dass das scheinbar Zufällige dort einem notwendigen Gesetz gehorcht. Denn in moderner Auffassung meint Kausalität nicht, dass eine Ursache A eine Wirkung B herbeiführt; vielmehr liegt das Wesen der Kausalität in einer notwendigen Verknüpfung zeitlich getrennter Ereignisse oder Zustände der Welt miteinander durch universell geltende Gesetze. Wir wollen zur Klärung der Frage beitragen, welche Rolle kausale Erklärungen in den zeitgenössischen Wirtschaftswissenschaften spielen können. Wir untersuchen diese Frage am Beispiel der gegenwärtigen Finanzkrise. Nach einer kurzen Beschreibung der Entstehung der Finanzkrise (Abschnitt 2) und einer Klärung des Begriffes Krise“ (Abschnitt 3), erläutern wir ausführlich die Ursachen für die gegenwärtige Finanzkrise (Abschnitt 4), wobei auch kapitaltheoretische Überlegungen wie der Begriff des natürlichen Zinssatzes, unterschiedliche Fristigkeiten und Grade der Risikoscheuheit berücksichtigt werden. Da wir zeigen, dass die Krise sich nicht kausal erklären lässt, sprechen wir nicht von Ursachen, sondern von Gründen dieser Krise, von denen wir folgende nennen: die exzessive amerikanischen Geldpolitik, das Handelsbilanzungleichgewichtes zwischen USA und China, das amerikanische Haftungsrecht,die zunehmende Komplexität der Finanzinstrumente, systemischen Risiken, das mangelnde Wissen der Bankmanager um vergangene Krisen sowie ihr Entlohnungssystem. In Abschnitt 5 fragen wir, was Kausalität in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften und speziell in der gegenwärtigen Finanzkrise bedeuten kann? Wie wirken objektive Faktoren und subjektive Faktoren (wie Vertrauen) zusammen? Es zeigt sich, dass in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften nur unter ganz bestimmten Bedingungen kausale Gesetze abgeleitet werden können; es können dagegen sehr wohl Regeln abgeleitet werden, die im Allgemeinen gelten. Abschließend diskutieren wir in Abschnitt 6 die Frage, ob Finanzkrisen unvermeidlich sind.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernholz, Peter & Faber, Malte & Petersen, Thomas, 2009. "Kausalität in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften: Welche Ursachen hat die Finanzkrise?," Working Papers 0488, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:awi:wpaper:0488 Note: This paper is part of http://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/view/schriftenreihen/sr-3.html
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Methodologie; Kausalität; Finanzkrise; Kapitaltheorie; Vertrauenmethodology; causality; financial crises; confidence;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

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