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Modelling Housing Market Fundamentals: Empirical Evidence of Extreme Market Conditions

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  • Simon Stevenson

Abstract

This paper re-examines the price behaviour of the residential property market in Ireland and specifically assess the extent to which a speculative bubble developed during the boom in the market since the mid-nineties. The paper uses a number of alternative methodological approaches in the estimation of fundamental value in the market. The majority of the approaches illustrate that a substantial premium developed during the late nineties, reaching a peak in 1999 and 2000. While this speculative premium did decrease in 2001, the majority of the models used signify that a substantial premium over fundamental values is still present in the market. The paper also highlights modelling concerns in some of the methodological approaches that have been commonly applied to the Irish market.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon Stevenson, 2005. "Modelling Housing Market Fundamentals: Empirical Evidence of Extreme Market Conditions," ERES eres2005_322, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    • Handle: RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2005_322
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    File URL: https://eres.architexturez.net/doc/oai-eres-id-eres2005-322
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    JEL classification:

    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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