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Modeling Housing Market Fundamentals: Empirical Evidence of Extreme Market Conditions

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  • Simon Stevenson

Abstract

This article examines the issues encountered in the modeling of market fundamentals during a period of extreme price behavior. The study analyzes the price behavior of the residential property market in Ireland using a number of alternative methodological approaches in the estimation of fundamental market value. Limitations in conventional models such as an inverted demand model are highlighted, in particular, with regard to diagnostic concerns and the static nature of the model. The use of an error correction framework provides more consistent and robust findings. The analysis does appear to indicate that a substantial premium over fundamental values developed in the Irish market during the late 1990s, reaching a peak in 1999 and 2000. However, in recent years, prices have largely been in line with fundamentals. Copyright 2008 American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association

Suggested Citation

  • Simon Stevenson, 2008. "Modeling Housing Market Fundamentals: Empirical Evidence of Extreme Market Conditions," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(1), pages 1-29, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:36:y:2008:i:1:p:1-29
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Montagnoli, Alberto & Nagayasu, Jun, 2015. "UK house price convergence clubs and spillovers," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 50-58.
    2. Michael, Bryane & Zhao, Simon, 2016. "Bubble Economics How Big a Shock to China’s Real Estate Sector Will Throw the Country into Recession, and Why Does It Matter?," EconStor Preprints 141314, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    3. Bianca Biagi & Maria G. Brandano & Dionysia Lambiri, 2015. "Does Tourism Affect House Prices? Evidence from Italy," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 501-528, September.
    4. repec:eee:quaeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:100-107 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Fabrizio Orrego, 2017. "Precios de viviendas en Lima," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research,in: Gerardo Licandro & Jorge Ponce (ed.), Precios de activos internos, fundamentos globales y estabilidad financiera, edition 1, chapter 7, pages 237-265 Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    6. Simon Stevenson & James Young, 2015. "The Role of Undisclosed Reserves in English Open Outcry Auctions," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(2), pages 375-402, June.
    7. Nagayasu, Jun, 2016. "Inflation and Bubbles in the Japanese Condominium Market," MPRA Paper 71192, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Alberto Montagnoli & Jun Nagaysu, 2013. "An investigation of housing affordability in the UK regions," Working Papers 1316, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    9. Sae Park & Doo Bahng & Yun Park, 2010. "Price Run-up in Housing Markets, Access to Bank Lending and House Prices in Korea," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 332-367, April.
    10. Yunus, Nafeesa, 2015. "Trends and convergence in global housing markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 100-112.
    11. B. Biagi & MG. Brandano & D. Lambiri, 2012. "Does tourism affect house prices? Some evidence from Italy," Working Paper CRENoS 201227, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    12. António Miguel Martins & Ana Paula Serra & Francisco Vitorino Martins & Simon Stevenson, "undated". "Residential Property Loans and Bank Performance during Property Price Booms: Evidence from Europe," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2014-05, Henley Business School, Reading University.

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