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A Path-Dependent Agent-Based Microsimulation of Crime and Violence Reduction Policy Portfolios in Bolivia: Survey Calibration, Adaptive Emulator Ensembles, Global Sensitivity, Tempered MCMC, and Multi-Objective Policy Analysis

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  • Ricardo Alonzo Fern'andez-Salguero

Abstract

This study develops a survey-calibrated, path-dependent agent-based microsimulation for evaluating crime and violence reduction policies in Bolivia. A synthetic population is constructed from the 2025 Household Survey and the fourth-quarter 2025 Continuous Employment Survey using official expansion weights and cross-survey donor matching. The model combines heterogeneous agents, place-based risk, criminal adaptation, institutional capacity, community organization, and multiple policy channels. Uncertainty is propagated through adaptive Gaussian-process and tree-ensemble emulators, global sensitivity analysis, tempered ensemble MCMC, and predictive meta-calibration. Simulated portfolios include focused policing, community control, Guardabosques-type incentives, social prevention, environmental interventions, justice reforms, investigation, rehabilitation, and financial-network disruption. Results are interpreted as structural policy scenarios rather than causal forecasts, with explicit attention to displacement, distributional effects, implementation capacity, and multi-objective trade-offs.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo Alonzo Fern'andez-Salguero, 2026. "A Path-Dependent Agent-Based Microsimulation of Crime and Violence Reduction Policy Portfolios in Bolivia: Survey Calibration, Adaptive Emulator Ensembles, Global Sensitivity, Tempered MCMC, and Multi-Objective Policy Analysis," Papers 2610.03895, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2610.03895
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Linda Farthing & Thomas Grisaffi, 2024. "From Alternative Development to Decolonisation: Transforming Drug Crop Policies in Bolivia," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 60(7), pages 985-1001, July.
    2. Lawrence W. Sherman & Heather Strang & Evan Mayo-Wilson & Daniel J. Woods & Barak Ariel, 2015. "Are Restorative Justice Conferences Effective in Reducing Repeat Offending? Findings from a Campbell Systematic Review," Journal of Quantitative Criminology, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 1-24, March.
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