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Post-Rejection Follow-up Sampling: Measuring Outcomes of Rejected Decisions in Algorithmic DEX Trading

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  • Arati Uday Kamat

Abstract

Note (Oct 2026): data were collected by a tracker with a 10-minute sweep, 24-hour cap and one record per token, not the PRFS schedule of v1-v2; headline counts unchanged. Filter-gated algorithmic trading systems on decentralised exchanges reject most candidate tokens they evaluate, yet the observed forward market trajectory of those rejected candidates is rarely measured on the same live venue that produced the rejection. This paper introduces Post-Rejection Follow-up Sampling (PRFS), an observational measurement methodology in which a separate tracking subsystem samples each rejected token's price and liquidity from the same live oracle path used by the rejecting scanner, at a scheduled cadence, from the moment of rejection out to a fixed analytic horizon. The methodology is defined through a formal specification of the observation window and the reason-attribution rule, a reference implementation (prfs v2.0.0) with executable coverage and reason-ledger tests, and a secondary cross-check implementation that re-derives every headline number through a distinct code path. The companion dataset contains 67,000 forward-observation rows across 2,997 rejection events collected on a single Solana automated-market-maker sub-venue during a launch-dynamics window of 8.63 calendar days across 457 unique mints. Under the primary reason-aware three-field event key, 1,455 events (48.55 percent) receive a matched forward observation; under the reason-agnostic two-field diagnostic key, 1,641 events (54.75 percent) match. Mint-level coverage is 100 percent. The 253-row reason-conflict ledger and 8,593 unaligned outcome rows are disclosed, and coverage is shown to be filter-associated (chi-square(6) = 401.29) and source-associated (z = 14.78). No causal or counterfactual claim of a hypothetical acceptance outcome is made; the reported estimand is the observed post-rejection forward return.

Suggested Citation

  • Arati Uday Kamat, 2026. "Post-Rejection Follow-up Sampling: Measuring Outcomes of Rejected Decisions in Algorithmic DEX Trading," Papers 2606.08228, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2026.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2606.08228
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fan Fang & Carmine Ventre & Michail Basios & Leslie Kanthan & David Martinez-Rego & Fan Wu & Lingbo Li, 2022. "Cryptocurrency trading: a comprehensive survey," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-59, December.
    2. Crook, Jonathan & Banasik, John, 2004. "Does reject inference really improve the performance of application scoring models?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 857-874, April.
    3. Fan Fang & Carmine Ventre & Michail Basios & Leslie Kanthan & Lingbo Li & David Martinez-Regoband & Fan Wu, 2020. "Cryptocurrency Trading: A Comprehensive Survey," Papers 2003.11352, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    4. Arati U. Kamat, 2026. "RED-2400: A Public Benchmark of Algorithmically-Rejected Trading Events with Outcome Labels," Papers 2605.12151, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2026.
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