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Empirical Analysis of the Model-Free Valuation Approach: Hedging Gaps, Conservatism, and Trading Opportunities

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  • Zixing Chen
  • Yihan Qi
  • Shanlan Que
  • Julian Sester
  • Xiao Zhang

Abstract

In this paper we study the quality of model-free valuation approaches for financial derivatives by systematically evaluating the difference between model-free super-hedging strategies and the realized payoff of financial derivatives using historical option prices from several constituents of the S&P 500 between 2018 and 2022. Our study allows in particular to describe the realized gap between payoff and model-free hedging strategy empirically so that we can quantify to which degree model-free approaches are overly conservative. Our results imply that the model-free hedging approach is only marginally more conservative than industry-standard models such as the Heston-model while being model-free at the same time. This finding, its statistical description and the model-independence of the hedging approach enable us to construct an explicit trading strategy which, as we demonstrate, can be profitably applied in financial markets, and additionally possesses the desirable feature with an explicit control of its downside risk due to its model-free construction preventing losses pathwise.

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  • Zixing Chen & Yihan Qi & Shanlan Que & Julian Sester & Xiao Zhang, 2025. "Empirical Analysis of the Model-Free Valuation Approach: Hedging Gaps, Conservatism, and Trading Opportunities," Papers 2508.16595, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2508.16595
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jonathan Ansari & Eva Lütkebohmert & Ariel Neufeld & Julian Sester, 2024. "Improved robust price bounds for multi-asset derivatives under market-implied dependence information," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 911-964, October.
    2. Henry Chiu & Rama Cont, 2023. "A model‐free approach to continuous‐time finance," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 257-273, April.
    3. Jim Gatheral & Antoine Jacquier, 2014. "Arbitrage-free SVI volatility surfaces," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 59-71, January.
    4. Patrick Cheridito & Michael Kupper & Ludovic Tangpi, 2016. "Duality formulas for robust pricing and hedging in discrete time," Papers 1602.06177, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2017.
    5. B. Acciaio & M. Beiglböck & F. Penkner & W. Schachermayer, 2016. "A Model-Free Version Of The Fundamental Theorem Of Asset Pricing And The Super-Replication Theorem," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 233-251, April.
    6. Pierre Henry-Labordère, 2013. "Automated Option Pricing: Numerical Methods," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(08), pages 1-27.
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