IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2503.17927.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Optimal Betting: Beyond the Long-Term Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Levon Hakobyan
  • Sergey Lototsky

Abstract

While the Kelly portfolio has many desirable properties, including optimal long-term growth rate, the resulting investment strategy is rather aggressive. In this paper, we suggest a unified approach to the risk assessment of the Kelly criterion in both discrete and continuous time by introducing and analyzing the asymptotic variance that describes fluctuations of the portfolio growth, and use the results to propose two new measures for quantifying risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Levon Hakobyan & Sergey Lototsky, 2025. "Optimal Betting: Beyond the Long-Term Growth," Papers 2503.17927, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2503.17927
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2503.17927
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. L. C. MacLean & W. T. Ziemba & G. Blazenko, 1992. "Growth Versus Security in Dynamic Investment Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(11), pages 1562-1585, November.
    2. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-257, August.
    4. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-343.
    5. Yongli Han & Philip Leung Ho Yu & Thomas Mathew, 2019. "Shrinkage estimation of Kelly portfolios," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 277-287, February.
    6. Gut, Allan, 1974. "On the moments of some first passage times for sums of dependent random variables," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 115-126, January.
    7. Leonard MacLean & William Ziemba, 1999. "Growth versus security tradeoffs indynamic investment analysis," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 85(0), pages 193-225, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.
    2. Kraft, Holger & Meyer-Wehmann, André & Seifried, Frank Thomas, 2020. "Dynamic asset allocation with relative wealth concerns in incomplete markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    3. Nicole Branger & Matthias Muck & Stefan Weisheit, 2019. "Correlation risk and international portfolio choice," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 128-146, January.
    4. George Chacko & Luis M. Viceira, 2005. "Dynamic Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Volatility in Incomplete Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1369-1402.
    5. Bernardo D'Auria & Carlos Escudero, 2024. "Time evaluation of portfolio for asymmetrically informed traders," Papers 2410.16010, arXiv.org.
    6. Radu Tunaru, 2015. "Model Risk in Financial Markets:From Financial Engineering to Risk Management," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 9524.
    7. Bégin, Jean-François, 2020. "Levelling the playing field: A VIX-linked structure for funded pension schemes," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 58-78.
    8. Erhan Bayraktar & Yan Dolinsky & Jia Guo, 2018. "Continuity of Utility Maximization under Weak Convergence," Papers 1811.01420, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2020.
    9. Jia Yue & Ming-Hui Wang & Nan-Jing Huang, 2022. "Global Optimal Consumption–Portfolio Rules with Myopic Preferences and Loss Aversion," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(4), pages 1427-1455, December.
    10. Ralf Korn & Holger Kraft, 2004. "On The Stability Of Continuous‐Time Portfolio Problems With Stochastic Opportunity Set," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 403-414, July.
    11. Thomas Kokholm & Martin Stisen, 2015. "Joint pricing of VIX and SPX options with stochastic volatility and jump models," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 16(1), pages 27-48, January.
    12. Darren Shannon & Grigorios Fountas, 2021. "Extending the Heston Model to Forecast Motor Vehicle Collision Rates," Papers 2104.11461, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
    13. Chen, An & Hieber, Peter & Sureth, Caren, 2022. "Pay for tax certainty? Advance tax rulings for risky investment under multi-dimensional tax uncertainty," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 273, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    14. Yang, Nian & Chen, Nan & Wan, Xiangwei, 2019. "A new delta expansion for multivariate diffusions via the Itô-Taylor expansion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 209(2), pages 256-288.
    15. Almeida, Thiago Ramos, 2024. "Estimating time-varying factors’ variance in the string-term structure model with stochastic volatility," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PA).
    16. Chenxu Li, 2014. "Closed-Form Expansion, Conditional Expectation, and Option Valuation," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 39(2), pages 487-516, May.
    17. Levendorskii, Sergei, 2004. "Consistency conditions for affine term structure models," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 225-261, February.
    18. O. Samimi & Z. Mardani & S. Sharafpour & F. Mehrdoust, 2017. "LSM Algorithm for Pricing American Option Under Heston–Hull–White’s Stochastic Volatility Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 50(2), pages 173-187, August.
    19. Almut Veraart & Luitgard Veraart, 2012. "Stochastic volatility and stochastic leverage," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 205-233, May.
    20. Bjork, Tomas, 2009. "Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 3, number 9780199574742, Decembrie.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2503.17927. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.