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European Defence Readiness

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  • d'Artis Kancs

Abstract

The preparedness and readiness of Europe is currently being challenged not only by Russia, but since recently also by its long-standing allies. In response to the evolving external security environment, the EU's White Paper on European Defence Readiness 2030 outlines the key defence issues in Europe - including critical capability gaps of forces, challenges of the defence industry such as fragmented defence market and military mobility. Leveraging an empirically validated general equilibrium multi-sector model with ambiguity and risk, this study assesses how prepared is Europe to address protracted conflicts and systemic shocks. Exploring what strategies could enhance European readiness, scenario analysis of a hypothetical total trade war imply that today's existing problems will only be amplified by systemic shocks, if not addressed timely and in a targeted way.

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  • d'Artis Kancs, 2024. "European Defence Readiness," Papers 2501.00058, arXiv.org, revised May 2025.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2501.00058
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. d'Artis Kancs, 2024. "Uncertainty of supply chains: Risk and ambiguity," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(5), pages 2009-2033, May.
    2. Baqaee, David & Hinz, Julian & Moll, Benjamin & Schularick, Moritz & Teti, Feodora A. & Wanner, Joschka & Yang, Sihwan, 2024. "What if? The effects of a hard decoupling from China on the German economy," Kiel Policy Brief 170, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
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