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Machine learning for multiple yield curve markets: fast calibration in the Gaussian affine framework

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  • Sandrine Gumbel
  • Thorsten Schmidt

Abstract

Calibration is a highly challenging task, in particular in multiple yield curve markets. This paper is a first attempt to study the chances and challenges of the application of machine learning techniques for this. We employ Gaussian process regression, a machine learning methodology having many similarities with extended Kalman filtering - a technique which has been applied many times to interest rate markets and term structure models. We find very good results for the single curve markets and many challenges for the multi curve markets in a Vasicek framework. The Gaussian process regression is implemented with the Adam optimizer and the non-linear conjugate gradient method, where the latter performs best. We also point towards future research.

Suggested Citation

  • Sandrine Gumbel & Thorsten Schmidt, 2020. "Machine learning for multiple yield curve markets: fast calibration in the Gaussian affine framework," Papers 2004.07736, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2004.07736
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martin Keller-Ressel & Thorsten Schmidt & Robert Wardenga, 2018. "Affine processes beyond stochastic continuity," Papers 1804.07556, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2018.
    2. Christa Cuchiero & Claudio Fontana & Alessandro Gnoatto, 2016. "A general HJM framework for multiple yield curve modelling," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 267-320, April.
    3. Tolulope Fadina & Ariel Neufeld & Thorsten Schmidt, 2018. "Affine processes under parameter uncertainty," Papers 1806.02912, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2019.
    4. Zorana Grbac & Antonis Papapantoleon & John Schoenmakers & David Skovmand, 2014. "Affine LIBOR models with multiple curves: theory, examples and calibration," Papers 1405.2450, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2015.
    5. Jan De Spiegeleer & Dilip B. Madan & Sofie Reyners & Wim Schoutens, 2018. "Machine learning for quantitative finance: fast derivative pricing, hedging and fitting," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(10), pages 1635-1643, October.
    6. Christa Cuchiero & Claudio Fontana & Alessandro Gnoatto, 2019. "Affine multiple yield curve models," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 568-611, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eva Lutkebohmert & Thorsten Schmidt & Julian Sester, 2021. "Robust deep hedging," Papers 2106.10024, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.

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