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Inversion of Convex Ordering: Local Volatility Does Not Maximize the Price of VIX Futures

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  • Beatrice Acciaio
  • Julien Guyon

Abstract

It has often been stated that, within the class of continuous stochastic volatility models calibrated to vanillas, the price of a VIX future is maximized by the Dupire local volatility model. In this article we prove that this statement is incorrect: we build a continuous stochastic volatility model in which a VIX future is strictly more expensive than in its associated local volatility model. More generally, in this model, strictly convex payoffs on a squared VIX are strictly cheaper than in the associated local volatility model. This corresponds to an inversion of convex ordering between local and stochastic variances, when moving from instantaneous variances to squared VIX, as convex payoffs on instantaneous variances are always cheaper in the local volatility model. We thus prove that this inversion of convex ordering, which is observed in the SPX market for short VIX maturities, can be produced by a continuous stochastic volatility model. We also prove that the model can be extended so that, as suggested by market data, the convex ordering is preserved for long maturities.

Suggested Citation

  • Beatrice Acciaio & Julien Guyon, 2019. "Inversion of Convex Ordering: Local Volatility Does Not Maximize the Price of VIX Futures," Papers 1910.05750, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1910.05750
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daniel Lacker & Mykhaylo Shkolnikov & Jiacheng Zhang, 2019. "Inverting the Markovian projection, with an application to local stochastic volatility models," Papers 1905.06213, arXiv.org.
    2. Frédéric Abergel & Rémi Tachet, 2010. "A nonlinear partial integro-differential equation from mathematical finance," Post-Print hal-00611962, HAL.
    3. Mathias Beiglboeck & Peter Friz & Stephan Sturm, 2010. "Is the minimum value of an option on variance generated by local volatility?," Papers 1001.4031, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2011.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jim Gatheral & Paul Jusselin & Mathieu Rosenbaum, 2020. "The quadratic rough Heston model and the joint S&P 500/VIX smile calibration problem," Papers 2001.01789, arXiv.org.

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