A non-equilibrium formulation of food security resilience

Resilience, the ability to recover from adverse events ("shocks"), is of fundamental importance to food security. This is especially true in poor countries, where basic needs are frequently threatened by economic, environmental, and health shocks. An empirically sound formalization of the concept of food security resilience, however, is lacking. Here we introduce a general framework for quantifying resilience based on a simple definition: a unit is resilient if $(a)$ its long-term food security trend is not deteriorating and $(b)$ the effects of shocks on this trend do not persist over time. Our approach can be applied to any food security variable for which high-frequency time-series data is available, can accommodate any unit of analysis (e.g., individuals, households, countries), and is especially useful in rapidly changing contexts wherein standard equilibrium-based economic models are ineffective. We illustrate our method with an analysis of per capita kilocalorie availability for 161 countries between 1961 and 2011. We find that resilient countries are not necessarily those that are characterized by high levels or less volatile fluctuations of kilocalorie intake. Accordingly, food security policies and programs will need to be tailored not only to welfare levels at any one time, but also to long-run welfare dynamics.