Valuation of Zynga
On December 16, Zynga, the well-known social game developing company went public. This event is following other recent IPOs in the world of social networking companies, such as Groupon, Linkedin or Pandora to cite a few. With a valuation close to 7 billion USD at the time when it went public, Zynga has become the biggest web IPO since Google. This recent enthusiasm for social networking companies, and in particular Zynga, brings up the question whether or not they are overvalued. The common denominator of all these IPOs is that a lot of estimates about their valuation have been circulating, without any specifics given about the methodology or assumptions used to obtain those numbers. To bring more substance to the debate, we propose a two-tiered approach. First, we introduce a new model to forecast the global user base of Zynga, based on the analysis of the individual dynamics of its major games. Next, we model the revenues per user using a logistic growth function, a standard model for growth in competition. This leads to bracket the valuation of Zynga using three different scenarios (base one, optimistic and very optimistic): 4.17 billion USD in the base case, 5.16 billion in the high growth and 7.02 billion in the extreme growth scenario respectively. Thus, only the unlikely extreme growth scenario could potentially justify today's 6.6 billion USD valuation of Zynga. This suggests that Zynga at its IPO has been overpriced.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Peter Cauwels & Didier Sornette, 2011. "Quis pendit ipsa pretia: facebook valuation and diagnostic of a bubble based on nonlinear demographic dynamics," Papers 1110.1319, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2011.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1112.6024. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.