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Um Modelo Keynes-Minsky Generalizado Deflutuações Cíclicas

Author

Listed:
  • JOSÉ LUIS DA COSTA OREIRO

    (UNB)

  • SERGIO RUBENS STANCATO DE SOUZA

    (UNB)

  • CELSO VILA NOVA DE SOUZA

    (UNB)

  • KELLY PEREIRA GUEDES

    (UNB)

Abstract

Este artigo tem por objetivo estender o modelo de flutuações cíclicas desenvolvido por Fazzari, Ferri e Greenberg (2008) por intermédio da incorporação de uma regra de Taylor e de um processo markoviano de formação de bolhas especulativas no valor da riqueza financeira dos consumidores, o qual passa a influenciar a dinâmica do consumo agregado. Essas extensões têm por objetivo não só tornar o modelo em consideração mais compatível com as idéias de Hyman Minsky a respeito da dinâmica financeira dos ciclos econômicos como principalmente avaliar o papel da política monetária e das bolhas especulativas para o fenômeno da persistência das flutuações cíclicas. Nesse contexto, demonstra-se que a introdução da regra de Taylor na estrutura do modelo desenvolvido por FFG tem como efeito a geração de flutuações cíclicas amortecidas para as séries macroeconômicas (crescimento, desemprego, investimento e nível de endividamento); de tal forma que o fenômeno da persistência das flutuações cíclicas não pode ser explicado apenas pela interação entre os efeitos multiplicador e acelerador. Dessa forma, a introdução de um processo markoviano de formação de bolhas especulativas no valor da riqueza financeira – e o impacto das mesmas sobre os gastos de consumo das famílias – é de importância fundamental para a geração de uma dinâmica macroeconômica caracteriza por flutuações persistentes (e irregulares) da taxa de crescimento do produto. A introdução das bolhas especulativas abre também a possibilidade teórica de ocorrência de quedas acentuadas no nível de atividade econômica (recessões) em função do estouro das mesmas e do efeito que a redução súbita do valor do estoque de riqueza financeira tem sobre os gastos de consumo das famílias.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • José Luis Da Costa Oreiro & Sergio Rubens Stancato De Souza & Celso Vila Nova De Souza & Kelly Pereira Guedes, 2011. "Um Modelo Keynes-Minsky Generalizado Deflutuações Cíclicas," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 226, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2010:226
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    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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