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Covid 19 and loss of production – an estimate for Portugal from electricity consumption


  • Miguel St.Aubyn


The relationship between electricity consumption and economic activity has been widely studied. It comes then as no surprise that the need to obtain a fast estimate for the GDP drop following the perceived devastating economic effects resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic would lead forecasting practitioners into exploiting this relationship. This drive is further explained, at least in the case of Portugal, by the fact that electricity consumption daily data are published almost in real-time as compared to delays in other potentially informative variables. As usual, there is a trade-off between speed and estimate accuracy. Any result of this kind is not a suitable replacement for better and more complete information, and, in due time, complete and accurate measurements will be available. In the meantime, less precise but already available instruments provide us with some guidance and insight.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel St.Aubyn, 2020. "Covid 19 and loss of production – an estimate for Portugal from electricity consumption," CFP Working Papers 01/2020, Portuguese Public Finance Council.
  • Handle: RePEc:alf:wpaper:2020-01

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    More about this item


    forecast; economic activity; electricity consumption; Portugal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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