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Una Aproximación a las Causas del Proceso Inflacionario Argentino Reciente

Author

Listed:
  • Guido Zack

    (Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política de Buenos Aires - UBA - CONICET)

  • Martín Montané

    (Universidad Nacional de San Martín)

  • Matías Kulfas

    (Universidad Nacional de San Martín)

Abstract

La inflación en la Argentina ha fluctuado entre niveles moderados y altos desde 2005. Para hacer un aporte en relación a sus causas, se estiman dos modelos VECM para el período octubre 2004 - febrero 2016: el “Modelo Monetarista” y el “Modelo Ampliado”. En ambos, la variable explicada es la inflación. En el primero las variables explicativas son la oferta monetaria y el nivel de actividad; en el segundo a las anteriores se agregan el nivel de salarios y el tipo de cambio. Los resultados muestran un mejor criterio de ajuste en el segundo modelo, en el cual se destaca la importancia del componente inercial y del tipo de cambio, mientras que los salarios y la oferta monetaria juegan un papel menor aunque también activo.

Suggested Citation

  • Guido Zack & Martín Montané & Matías Kulfas, 2017. "Una Aproximación a las Causas del Proceso Inflacionario Argentino Reciente," Documentos de trabajo del Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política IIEP (UBA-CONICET) 2017-19, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política IIEP (UBA-CONICET).
    • Handle: RePEc:ake:iiepdt:201719
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel Montes-Rojas & Fernando Toledo, 2021. "Shocks Externos Y Tensiones Inflacionarias En Argentina: Una Aproximación Empírica Poskeynesiana-Estructuralista," Documentos de trabajo del Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política IIEP (UBA-CONICET) 2021-64, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política IIEP (UBA-CONICET).
    2. Sebastian Valdecantos, 2020. "Argentina's (Macroeconomic?) Trap: Some Insights from an Empirical Stock-Flow Consistent Model," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_975, Levy Economics Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflación; Argentina; VECM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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