Global Ethanol Mandates: Opportunities for U.S. Exports of Ethanol and DDGS

Before 2001, only Brazil and Paraguay required ethanol to be blended with gasoline for fuel use. With biofuel production still in the nascent stage, these countries were unable to meet those mandates. From 2001 to 2010, ethanol-use mandates adopted by the United States and the European Union (EU), along with favorable market conditions, stimulated a rapid increase in ethanol production in the United States, the EU, and Brazil. By 2016, an additional 26 countries had adopted mandates, and others had set ethanol targets or were using ethanol without an official requirement. Many of these countries have difficulty meeting their mandates with domestic production. Some import ethanol (e.g., Canada and Japan); others have barriers against imports (e.g., Argentina and China). If these countries strive to meet their mandates and open their borders to trade, they could present strong export opportunities for U.S. ethanol, assuming the United States can sufficiently expand production. The United States currently is the world’s largest producer and exporter of ethanol. It also supplies 85 percent of the world’s distillers’ dried grains with solubles (DDGS), a coproduct of grain-based ethanol production that is used in animal feed. This report also discusses the potential for changes in DDGS trade.