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Teremos Que Trocar Energia Por Comida? Análise Do Impacto Da Expansão Da Produção De Cana-De-Açúcar Sobre O Preço Da Terra E Dos Alimentos

Listed author(s):
  • Chagas, Andre Luiz Squarize
  • Toneto Junior, Rudinei

O trabalho discute os principais argumentos contrários a expansão da produção de cana-de-açúcar no país, sobretudo para produção de etanol. Mais especificamente, um dos obstáculos à expansão da produção desta commodity diz respeito ao seu potencial impacto sobre o preço da terra e, conseqüentemente, sobre os preços dos alimentos. Os defensores deste ponto de vista argumentam que a pressão sobre os preços da terra seria inevitavelmente repassada para o preço dos alimentos, prejudicando, sobretudo, os mais pobres. No trabalho analisa-se 26 anos de produção de cana-de-açúcar, preço da terra e preços dos alimentos, em dados semestrais, por meio de abordagem VAR. Nossos resultados sugerem que não existe relação de causalidade no sentido de Granger entre produção de cana-de-açúcar e preço de alimentos. Ademais, conclui-se que é a produção que é influenciada pelo preço da terra, e não o contrário.------------------------------------------This work discusses the main contrary arguments to expansion of the sugar cane production in Brazil, especially for ethanol production. More specifically, one obstacles to production expansion refers to its potential impact on the land price and, consequently, on the foods prices. The defenders of this point of view argue that increase on the land prices impacts foods price, harming, especially, poor people. This work analyzes series of 26 years of sugar cane production, land price and foods prices, by means of VAR methodology. Our results suggest that sugar cane does not Granger cause foods prices. Furthermore, concludes that it is the sugar cane production that is influenced by the land price, and not the contrary.

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Paper provided by Sociedade Brasileira de Economia, Administracao e Sociologia Rural (SOBER) in its series 46th Congress, July 20-23, 2008, Rio Branco, Acre, Brasil with number 108570.

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Date of creation: Jul 2008
Handle: RePEc:ags:sbrfsr:108570
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