Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emission Regulations on the U.S. Sugar Industry

The objective of this study is to evaluate the changes in U.S. sugar production and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions from the sugar industry if the United States regulates GHG emissions from domestic sugar processing facilities. A spatial equilibrium model is developed to optimize sugar production in the United States under a base scenario and three different levels of CO2e taxes or prices of carbon offsets. This research focuses on U.S. sugar production, both beet and cane sugar. In the model the United States is divided into 6 beet growing regions and 4 cane growing regions. The model also includes Mexico as a domestic sugar growing region as Mexico has the ability to export unlimited amount of sugar into the United States under NAFTA. A rest of the world region is included because the United States imports sugar from about 40 different nations. The results indicate that sugar production by the U.S. beet sugar industry will decrease substantially if carbon emissions are taxed in the United States. Production in the U.S. cane industry will also decrease, but only slightly. Sugar imports from Mexico will increase but the majority of the imported sugar will come from other countries as Mexico’s ability to increase sugar production is limited. GHG emissions will decrease, but only slightly, because the GHG emissions that are reduced in the United States are replaced by GHG emission in other nations as U.S. sugar production is shipped overseas. However the impacts on the U.S. sugar industry would be substantial with GHG emission regulations.