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Profitability of Threshold-Based Flex Crop Strategies for Dryland Wheat Rotations

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  • Mooney, Daniel F.
  • Hoag, Dana L. K.
  • Mankin, Kyle

Abstract

Dryland wheat producers in Eastern Colorado incorporate fallow periods into their crop rotations to conserve soil moisture and stabilize yields, but increasing cropping intensity by reducing fallow frequency may improve profitability. Producers in this region often rely on fixed rotations that include fallow every second or third year; however, these rotations do not align fallow timing with information available before planting, such as moisture availability or weather forecasts. This raises the question of whether using preseason information to define threshold-based triggers for replacing fallow with a crop could outperform fixed rotations under dryland conditions. We compared fixed 2-year (wheat-fallow) and 3-year (wheat-millet-fallow) rotations to threshold-based flex rotations at field and farm scales using long-term crop experiment data (1994–2017) from the USDA-ARS Central Great Plains Research Station near Akron, CO. We found that flex rotations can outperform fixed rotations in annualized net returns, but the results are sensitive to the choice of information set, threshold level, and planning horizon. Overall, threshold-based flex rotations can support producers’ fallow management decisions by allowing them to condition cropping intensity on preseason conditions rather than on fixed rotation sequencing. Last, the findings point to a role for extension and policy interventions in improving producers' access to and effective use of the preseason information needed to implement flex-crop decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Mooney, Daniel F. & Hoag, Dana L. K. & Mankin, Kyle, 2026. "Profitability of Threshold-Based Flex Crop Strategies for Dryland Wheat Rotations," 2026 Annual Meeting, July 26 - 28, 2026, Kansas City, Missouri 404698, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea26:404698
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.404698
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. R. P. Zentner & C. A. Campbell & D. W. L. Read & C. H. Anderson, 1984. "An Economic Evaluation of Crop Rotations in Southwestern Saskatchewan," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 32(1), pages 37-54, March.
    2. C. Robert Taylor & F. S. Novak, 1992. "Optimal Flex Cropping and Storage of Spring Wheat under a Progressive Income Tax," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 40(3), pages 369-384, November.
    3. Bauer, Leonard & Novak, Frank & Armstrong, Glen & Staples, Blaine, 1992. "An Economic Analysis of Alternative Cropping Decisions Under Uncertainty," Project Report Series 232323, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.
    4. Kaur, Harsimran & Huggins, David R. & Carlson, Bryan & Stockle, Claudio & Nelson, Roger, 2022. "Dryland fallow vs flex-cropping decisions in inland Pacific Northwest of USA," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
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