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Selecting the Order of an ARCH Model

Author

Listed:
  • Anthony W. Hughes

    (Department of Economics, University of Adelaide)

  • Maxwell L. King

    (Monash University)

  • Kwek Kian Teng

    (Monash University)

Abstract

Since the parameters of an autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) process must be non-negative, inference on ARCH parameters can be improved by using inequality constrained estimation. In this paper, we extend this principle to the problem of ARCH lag order selection. We show that in the case of AIC, the appropriate adjustment to the penalty function has a simple form.

Suggested Citation

  • Anthony W. Hughes & Maxwell L. King & Kwek Kian Teng, 1999. "Selecting the Order of an ARCH Model," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 1999-01, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    • Handle: RePEc:adl:wpaper:1999-01
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    File URL: https://media.adelaide.edu.au/economics/papers/doc/wp1999-01.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gourieroux, Christian & Holly, Alberto & Monfort, Alain, 1982. "Likelihood Ratio Test, Wald Test, and Kuhn-Tucker Test in Linear Models with Inequality Constraints on the Regression Parameters," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 63-80, January.
    2. Granger, Clive W. J. & King, Maxwell L. & White, Halbert, 1995. "Comments on testing economic theories and the use of model selection criteria," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 173-187, May.
    3. Lee, John H H & King, Maxwell L, 1993. "A Locally Most Mean Powerful Based Score Test for ARCH and GARCH Regression Disturbances," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 17-27, January.
    4. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    5. Demos, Antonis & Sentana, Enrique, 1998. "Testing for GARCH effects: a one-sided approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 97-127, June.
    6. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rinke Saskia & Sibbertsen Philipp, 2016. "Information criteria for nonlinear time series models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 325-341, June.
    2. Manera, Matteo & Nicolini, Marcella & Vignati, Ilaria, 2016. "Modelling futures price volatility in energy markets: Is there a role for financial speculation?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 220-229.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inequality constrained maximum likelihood; one-sided AIC; model selection;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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