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Are There Rational Bubbles In The U.S Stock Market? Overview And A New Test

In: Economic Uncertainty, Instabilities And Asset Bubbles Selected Essays

Author

Listed:
  • Ramaprasad Bhar
  • A. G. Malliaris

Abstract

A speculative bubble is usually defined as the difference between the market value of a security and its fundamental value. Although there are several important theoretical issues surrounding the topic of asset bubbles, the existence of bubbles is inherently an empirical issue that has not been settled yet. This paper reviews several important tests and offers one more methodology that improves upon the existing ones. The new test is applied to the annual U.S. stock market data spanning over a century and at the monthly frequency covering the post-war period. Although we find evidence of stock price bubble in both cases, the post-war period exhibit only positive component whereas the annual data exhibit some episode of negative bubble.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramaprasad Bhar & A. G. Malliaris, 2005. "Are There Rational Bubbles In The U.S Stock Market? Overview And A New Test," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Economic Uncertainty, Instabilities And Asset Bubbles Selected Essays, chapter 12, pages 187-206, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789812701015_0012
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymptotic Economic Growth; Inflation; Interest Rates; Asset Pricing; Equity Markets; Foreign Currency; Monetary Policy; Crash;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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