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Inflation, Unemployment and the NAIRU in Poland

In: Advances in Time Series Data Methods in Applied Economic Research

Author

Listed:
  • Pavlos Stamatiou

    (Western Macedonia University of Applied Sciences)

  • Chaido Dritsaki

    (Western Macedonia University of Applied Sciences)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between inflation and unemployment rate, in the case of Poland over the period 1992–2017, within the Phillips curve context. Several econometric techniques are applied, including the bounds testing (ARDL) approach developed by Pesaran et al. (J Appl Econometrics 16(3):289–326, 2001) as well as Toda and Yamamoto (J Econometrics 66:225–250, 1995) modification of the Granger causality test (no-causality approach) in a two-variable vector autoregression (VAR) model. The results of the study confirm a long run relationship among the examined variables for the aforementioned period. Finally, the findings of Toda and Yamamoto (J Econometrics 66:225–250, 1995) analysis indicate a unidirectional causality between unemployment rate and inflation with direction from unemployment rate to inflation. Policy implications are then explored in the conclusions.

Suggested Citation

  • Pavlos Stamatiou & Chaido Dritsaki, 2018. "Inflation, Unemployment and the NAIRU in Poland," Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics, in: Nicholas Tsounis & Aspasia Vlachvei (ed.), Advances in Time Series Data Methods in Applied Economic Research, chapter 0, pages 159-176, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:prbchp:978-3-030-02194-8_12
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-02194-8_12
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Unemployment; NAIRU; Poland; Autoregressive distributed lag cointegration test; Toda-Yamamoto causality test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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