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Risk Analysis of Energy Performance Contracting Projects in Russia: An Analytic Hierarchy Process Approach

In: Operations Research Proceedings 2015

Author

Listed:
  • Maria Garbuzova-Schlifter

    (RWTH Aachen University)

  • Reinhard Madlener

    (RWTH Aachen University)

Abstract

The market for Energy Performance Contracting (EPC) in Russia is just emerging, but progress has so far been slow despite of promising forecasts. The successful realization of EPC projects requires a sound understanding of the main project risks. It highly depends on effective risk analysis and management, which should be essential parts of daily business activities of Energy Service Companies (ESCOs) and Energy Service Providing Companies (ESPCs) engaged in EPC projects in Russia. This study provides a first risk analysis framework for EPC projects executed in the industrial sector in Russia. General risks associated with EPC projects identified from the international literature were validated by Russian EPC practitioners in expert interviews. An Analytic Hierarchy Process approach was used to rank the identified risk factors and causes of risk in terms of their contribution to the riskiness of EPC projects. The data were obtained from a web-based survey among the Russian ESCOs and ESPCs. A widely usable risk management framework is proposed that is potentially very useful for EPC practitioners and can support the development of proactive risk analysis in EPC projects required both by third-party capital lenders and the further development of EPC market regulation. We also identify causes of risk related to the financial and regulatory aspects contributing the most to the riskiness of industrial sector EPC projects in Russia.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Garbuzova-Schlifter & Reinhard Madlener, 2017. "Risk Analysis of Energy Performance Contracting Projects in Russia: An Analytic Hierarchy Process Approach," Operations Research Proceedings, in: Karl Franz Dörner & Ivana Ljubic & Georg Pflug & Gernot Tragler (ed.), Operations Research Proceedings 2015, pages 683-690, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:oprchp:978-3-319-42902-1_92
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-42902-1_92
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    Cited by:

    1. Garbuzova-Schlifter, Maria & Madlener, Reinhard, 2016. "AHP-based risk analysis of energy performance contracting projects in Russia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 559-581.
    2. Höfer, Tim & Sunak, Yasin & Siddique, Hafiz & Madlener, Reinhard, 2016. "Wind farm siting using a spatial Analytic Hierarchy Process approach: A case study of the Städteregion Aachen," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 222-243.

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