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Developing Robust Climate Policies: A Fuzzy Cognitive Map Approach

In: Robustness Analysis in Decision Aiding, Optimization, and Analytics

Author

Listed:
  • Alexandros Nikas

    (National Technical University of Athens)

  • Haris Doukas

    (National Technical University of Athens)

Abstract

Climate change has been considered one of the most significant risks for sustainability in our century; in order to move towards low-carbon and climate resilient economies, fundamental changes must take place. In this direction, the European Union has set ambitious goals regarding the transition of its Member States to low carbon societies, but the policy strategies to promote this transition must be socially acceptable and supported. So far, climate policies have been evaluated using quantitative methods, including general equilibrium and integrated assessment models but, despite their undoubted contribution to climate modeling, both the quantitative frameworks used for studying climate change and its impacts and those aiming at policy optimization or evaluation feature significant uncertainties and limitations. In order to overcome these issues, a Fuzzy Cognitive Map based approach is proposed, aiming to directly involve stakeholders and assess human knowledge and expertise. The suggested methodological framework can significantly support climate policy making, by supplementing quantitative models and exploring impacts of selected sets of policies, based on qualitative information deriving from a structured stakeholder engagement process. Finally, an innovative approach of incorporating the concept of time into the methodology is proposed and evaluated, in the aim of enhancing the robustness of transition pathways.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandros Nikas & Haris Doukas, 2016. "Developing Robust Climate Policies: A Fuzzy Cognitive Map Approach," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Michael Doumpos & Constantin Zopounidis & Evangelos Grigoroudis (ed.), Robustness Analysis in Decision Aiding, Optimization, and Analytics, chapter 0, pages 239-263, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:isochp:978-3-319-33121-8_11
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-33121-8_11
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mohsen Abbaspour Onari & Mustafa Jahangoshai Rezaee, 2022. "A fuzzy cognitive map based on Nash bargaining game for supplier selection problem: a case study on auto parts industry," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 2133-2171, July.
    2. Ourania Markaki & Dimitris Askounis, 2021. "Assessing the operational and economic efficiency benefits of dynamic manufacturing networks through fuzzy cognitive maps: a case study," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 925-950, June.
    3. Adil Baykasoğlu & İlker Gölcük, 2020. "Comprehensive fuzzy FMEA model: a case study of ERP implementation risks," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 795-826, June.
    4. Themistoklis Koutsellis & Georgios Xexakis & Konstantinos Koasidis & Alexandros Nikas & Haris Doukas, 2022. "Parameter analysis for sigmoid and hyperbolic transfer functions of fuzzy cognitive maps," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 5733-5763, November.
    5. Konstantinos Papageorgiou & Gustavo Carvalho & Elpiniki I. Papageorgiou & Dionysis Bochtis & George Stamoulis, 2020. "Decision-Making Process for Photovoltaic Solar Energy Sector Development using Fuzzy Cognitive Map Technique," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-23, March.
    6. Süsser, Diana & Gaschnig, Hannes & Ceglarz, Andrzej & Stavrakas, Vassilis & Flamos, Alexandros & Lilliestam, Johan, 2022. "Better suited or just more complex? On the fit between user needs and modeller-driven improvements of energy system models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    7. Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks & Marek Antosiewicz & Andrzej Ceglarz & Haris Doukas & Alexandros Nikas & Jakub Sawulski & Aleksander Szpor & Baiba Witajewska-Baltvilka, 2018. "Risks associated with the decarbonisation of the Polish power sector," IBS Research Reports 05/2018, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    8. Haris Doukas & Alexandros Nikas & Mikel González-Eguino & Iñaki Arto & Annela Anger-Kraavi, 2018. "From Integrated to Integrative: Delivering on the Paris Agreement," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-10, July.
    9. Pramod K. Singh & Harpalsinh Chudasama, 2017. "Assessing impacts and community preparedness to cyclones: a fuzzy cognitive mapping approach," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(3), pages 337-354, August.

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