Wie genau sind die Konjunkturprognosen der Institute für Deutschland?
In: List Forum Band 32
Economic forecasts are characterised by uncertainties. This article discusses the causes of such uncertainties and calculates empirical forecast intervals for institutional forecasts for several German economic variables. In Addition, it is demonstrated how these intervals can be used to asses the significance of forecast revisions. It turns out that most forecast revisions were not significant and that such revisions usually do not carry important new judgements of the future economic development. Furthermore, it is shown that institutional forecasts outperform forecasts from time series models. However, clear differences among variables in terms of forecast precision emerge.(Original text only available in german language)
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
|This chapter was published in: ||This item is provided by List Gesellschaft e.V. in its series List Forum Chapter with number
32-10.||Handle:|| RePEc:lst:lfchap:32-10||Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: + 49 (0) 2 51 - 83 2 29 04
Fax: + 49 (0) 2 51 - 83 2 83 95
Web page: http://www.list-gesellschaft.deEmail:
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lst:lfchap:32-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lukas Wnuk Lipinski)The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Lukas Wnuk Lipinski to update the entry or send us the correct address
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.